The United Kingdom announced a surprise blockade in London and parts of the country on Saturday. The decision was imposed on the Boris Johnson government by an increase in cases of coronavirus disease (Covid-19). Britain now sees the third wave of infections – or a second wave that seemed to subside until it suddenly picked up – the country recorded around 35,000 new infections on December 17, the largest in a day.
The sudden decision by the United Kingdom can be attributed to the discovery of a new strain of Sars-CoV-2 virus, which causes coronavirus disease and which, Johnson said while imposing the blockade, was 70% more infectious than other strains of the virus. It is believed that most new cases in the country are caused by this variant, up to 60% of cases in London being caused by it.
The closure in London, which raises the Christmas and holiday plans of many of the city’s residents, was announced late Saturday afternoon, but took effect only at midnight – resulting in a large-scale exodus from the city to rural areas. a kind of fight avoided at all times, but especially when a viral pandemic breaks out in the city and the country. A few days before announcing the blockade, Johnson said it might be necessary to impose one after Christmas – but clearly his hand was forced by fears of a mutant strain.
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It’s not just the UK; South Africa announced on Friday that a new strain of Sars-CoV-2 virus had been detected in the country and that this could lead to a second wave of infections in the country. The country has seen an increase in cases since mid-November, and the seven-day average of new cases is about 70% of the peak observed in the first wave and rising.
There are some interesting similarities between the new strains in the UK and South Africa. Both, according to the health authorities in the two countries, seem to be spreading faster. The two strains appear to have a mutation, one that changes the structure of the virus’s spike protein. Health officials in both countries believe this could help the virus spread faster – after all, the spike protein is how the virus binds to receptors in human cells. In South Africa, scientists studying the variant claim that the new strain results in higher viral loads in patients – based on studies of buffer samples.
Here’s what we know: both new strains (the South African one would appear to be older and more widespread, based on what the country’s health authorities say) show a significant number of mutations, including a common one (N501Y is what people science call it) that affects the protein spike. And both strains appear to be more infectious.
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Viruses move, so the fact that Sars-CoV-2 has mutations is neither strange nor alarming. But these mutations could have an influence on both its virulence and the effectiveness of vaccines, and this is certainly something that deserves further study.
Here’s what we don’t know: we’re not sure if the new strain is more infectious; we are not sure if the new strain results in higher viral loads in patients (which in turn makes it more infectious); we are not sure if the new strain causes more severe forms of Covid-19 (initial evidence seems to suggest no, but we do not know for sure) and results in more deaths; and we do not know whether the vaccines that have so far proved successful against the virus are also effective against the new strain.
There are a lot of things we don’t know, but that’s exactly how science works. It will be interesting to see if the current strain (s) of Sars-CoV-2 detected in India show any observed mutations in the new strain in the UK and South Africa, especially N501Y.