Covid-19 statistics are declining as variants lurk and vaccines lag

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So, while the nation waits for widespread vaccines, the steps people should take to slow the spread are the same as always: wear masks, avoid gatherings and wash hands, experts have said.

Covid-19’s numbers are on the decline

• New daily recorded cases in the US are falling. Health experts had warned that the November-December holiday, with an increase in travel and indoor meetings, would skyrocket the cases of Covid-19.

And they did, according to data from Johns Hopkins University on Jan. 10, a pandemic record averaging more than 249,200 cases per day for a week.

The increase has slowed: the average was down to about 166,380 cases per day for a week from Tuesday – a decrease of more than 33% from the peak.

And the country has reported fewer than 200,000 new cases per day for 10 consecutive days – the longest period since before Thanksgiving.

• Hospital admissions are declining: About 108,950 Covid-19 patients were in U.S. hospitals Tuesday – a number generally declining since a pandemic peak of 132,474 patients registered Jan. 6.

According to the COVID Tracking Project, the statistic is now roughly where it was just before mid-December.

• Fatalities reported per day are just below a record: The country counts an average of 3,349 Covid-19 deaths per day for a week as of Tuesday.

That’s very close to a pandemic peak average of 3,355 that was reached on January 13 – and well above the averages of around 1,000 just in mid-November.

Experts have said that movements in the number of deaths can lag the number of cases and hospital admissions for weeks, because those who succumb to the disease can be sick for weeks at first.

January is already the deadliest month of the pandemic in the United States. But a model from the University of Washington predicts these numbers will decline in the coming months.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model predicts that the daily death toll could be below 1,850 on March 1, below 750 on April 1, and below 300 on May 1.

That’s partly due to seasonality, said institute director Dr. Christopher Murray Monday – meaning warmer weather could mean less chance of spreading, with more social opportunities outdoors.

But vaccinations “will also prevent many deaths,” Murray said.

About those variants

Scientists are looking at several known strains of coronavirus that are believed to be more transmissible than previous versions. That includes one first identified in the UK (B.1.1.7), one first seen in Brazil (P.1), and one first seen in South Africa (B. 1,351).
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Researchers are also looking at a variant found in California, Fauci said Monday, though it’s unclear whether it’s more transmissible.
The B.1.1.7 strain could become the predominant variety of the United States in March and has the potential to “increase the US pandemic trajectory in the coming months,” the CDC said in a report this month.

Dr. Emergency physician and former Baltimore health commissioner, Leana Wen, is one of the experts concerned that more transferable variants could lead to more spikes in the cases if they snag.

“We saw what is happening in other countries that have actually had the coronavirus under relatively good control, then these variants took over and they had an explosive spread of the virus and then overwhelmed hospitals,” Wen told CNN Monday.

‘Get as many people as possible vaccinated as soon as possible’

An obvious way to combat these variants – and to reduce the likelihood of more dangerous mutations occurring – Fauci has said is to get vaccinated.

“The best way to prevent the evolution of mutants is to suppress the amount of virus circulating in the population. And the best way to do that is to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible,” Fauci told Monday. CNN. .

Fortunately, Fauci said, current Covid-19 vaccines are likely to be effective against the new variants.
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There is some evidence that the effectiveness of vaccine-induced antibodies could be diminished against the mutant first seen in South Africa, but “it is still within the range of an effective vaccine,” Fauci said.

Moderna and Pfizer both say experiments indicate their vaccines will protect people from the new variants. And while it believes its current two-dose vaccine will be effective, Moderna said it would develop a potential boost against this variant just in case.
If the US were to administer 1 million shots per day – the pace needed to reach Biden’s original goal of delivering 100 million shots in his first 100 days in office – it would take until the end of 2021 to fully complete 75% of the US vaccinate. adults, assuming each recipient needs two shots, according to an analysis by CNN.
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The country may be close to that pace now. Biden said Monday he hoped to eventually increase the pace to 1.5 million shots a day. The time frame would also shorten if some people are given single-dose vaccines, such as the Johnson & Johnson candidate, who is expected to report the results of the phase 3 studies soon.

The World Health Organization, meanwhile, has emphasized that rich countries must do more to ensure vaccines are available worldwide. That’s not just for moral reasons, but also because dangerous mutations can develop in places where people aren’t vaccinated in sufficient numbers – eventually becoming pathogenic people who have already been vaccinated.

“A I-first approach puts the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people at risk. It’s also self-destructive,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Wednesday.

Keep masking, experts say

The steps people should take to combat variants and bring the country closer to normal while waiting for vaccines follow the now well-known roadmap of pandemic precautions, from wearing masks to avoiding crowds to simply washing hands .

New species are “putting a lot of pressure on us to try () do everything we can to reduce transmission,” said Dr. Richard Besser, former acting director of the CDC, Tuesday.

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Vaccines are part of that, but the bulk of it is trying to come together as a nation and see: Can we get those people who don’t wear masks to do that? Can we get people socially distant and crowded indoors? avoid places? ”he said

“If we can do those things, we can mitigate the effects of the pandemic this winter.”

Biden last week signed an executive order mandating masks in federal buildings and on federal lands, asking Americans to wear masks during his first 100 days in office.
France, Germany and Austria, concerned about more transferable variants, have mandated medical-grade face masks in at least some public places.
The CDC currently recommends the general public to use washable cloth masks or single-use, non-medical, disposable masks. Masks should have two or more layers of fabric that fit snugly over the nose and mouth, it says.

These preventive measures coupled with the vaccine rollout – even over several months – should bring increasing relief, Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, told CNN late last week.

“I’m hopeful that by the end of spring to early summer, life will feel really meaningfully different and better,” he said.

CNN’s Amanda Watts, Elizabeth Cohen, John Bonifield, Andrea Diaz, Maggie Fox, Naomi Thomas, Sandee LaMotte, Deidre McPhillips and Jen Christensen contributed to this report.

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