With the arrival of spring and a tiring year of COVID-19 restrictions, Americans are eager to return to a sense of normalcy.
However, many health experts call for patience, warning that a possible fourth wave may be on the horizon, over a dozen states showing early signs of an increase in the number of cases.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading expert on infectious diseases, sounded the alarm this week, expressing concern that we may reopen sooner than we should.
“There were times when I thought things were under control and then they exploded again,” Fauci said. “So even though we’re going in the right direction, we have to keep our foot on the pedal when it comes to public health measures.”
In the last week, more than a dozen states have seen increases in the daily averages of cases. Parts of the Upper Midwest showed particularly worrying trends, including in Michigan, where cases have risen since the end of February.
Experts and officials fear that a combination of slimming restrictions and the spread of the British variant could cause growth in Michigan – a potentially disturbing sign for other areas as mass vaccination is launched.
“Real concern” in Michigan
The state of Great Lake currently has the fourth highest average in the country of new cases of COVID-19 per capita, with New Jersey leading the country. In the last three weeks, the daily average of cases has doubled. In the last week alone, the state average has increased by 53%.
The seven-day average is now more than 2,500 new cases a day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and on Wednesday, Michigan reported a total of 3,164 new cases, the highest total of its case in a single day. since the beginning of January.
In comparison, California, with about four times the population of Michigan, recorded only 415 more cases than Michigan this week.
“Despite declining trends over the past few months, we are still at high levels of community transmission and [the U.K.] the variant that is known to be more transmissible, there is a real concern that you could quickly end up in a situation of exponential growth in cases that threaten to overwhelm health systems again “, explained Josh Petrie, research assistant professor at Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.
Michigan has seen a steady increase in hospitalizations since late February and 1,000 people are currently hospitalized, said Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, during a news conference Wednesday – a 45% increase February 25.
In contrast, the seven-day average of hospitalizations fell 8.4 percent nationally this week and 73 percent from January, according to the CDC.
In the last week, hospitalizations in Michigan have increased by 24%, according to the CDC, and PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia reports that visits to emergency departments and hospitalizations are increasing in Michigan.
Wayne and Genesee counties (home to Detroit and Flint) and Macomb County have a viral reproduction number over 1.3, indicating “substantial transmission,” and the organization’s models project a potential doubling in the incidence in these counties in the next 3-4 years. weeks.
Although there is still a decline in the number of deaths in the state, Lyon-Callo has warned that deaths are an indicator of delay. Therefore, the number of COVID-related deaths could increase in the next few weeks.
The appearance of the British version
According to the CDC, Michigan currently ranks second in the country for the most reported cases of variant B.1.1.7 first discovered in the UK, with over 725 confirmed cases in 31 counties.
“This is very communicable,” Dr. Nigel Paneth, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics and pediatrics at Michigan State University, told ABC News. “It may be less likely to cause severe disease, but it seems to be prevented by current vaccines.”
The variant is found in more densely populated areas of the state, with more than half of the B.1.1.7 variants identified coming from an outbreak within the Michigan Department of Corrections, according to the state Department of Health.
In addition to variant B.1.1.7 leading to increased transmission, there is a confluence of factors that could lead to increased values, Dr. Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at the State College of Public Health, told ABC News from Kent State University since the restriction on food, entertainment and other business restrictions by Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s administration over the past few weeks.
“I think we are also noticing COVID fatigue, along with, in our condition, a modest relaxation of public health guidelines,” Paneth said. “There is clearly an unfortunate trend now for the general public to relax the distance measures and for the authorities to relax the public health restrictions. This is a real concern in light of the continuing evolution of new strains of the COVID virus. ”
Moreover, with more children back in school and participating in sports programs, school-related COVID-19 cases are on the rise in the state, according to state data.
“The highest number of outbreaks is in the K-12 school environment at 162, with 54 new outbreaks reported this week,” Callo-Lyon said. Children between the ages of 10 and 19 now have the highest COVID-19 case rate in Michigan, a rate that “grows faster than other age groups.”
However, nationwide, cases of new children have dropped for the eighth consecutive week, according to a weekly report by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.
However, she said, these new cases are associated with extracurricular activities, such as sports, and are not in a classroom. As a result, Michigan will begin imposing testing on high school students.
“The classroom environment itself was not a strong signal for outbreaks. It tends to be more those activities associated with schools, including sports, but not limited to sports “, added Callo-Lyon.
“Grit your teeth”
Outbreaks appear as the state prepares to open the largest mass vaccination site at Detroit’s Ford Field, which is set to officially open on March 24.
“It’s time for us to grit our teeth and continue to do the work we need to do until the last second of this event takes place. If we want to get back to normal … we all need to get vaccinated, encourage them to loved ones and friends, co-workers and neighbors to do so, ”Whitmer said Thursday.
The state vaccinates at a rate of 90,000 people a day, according to state officials, but so far, less than 25% of the state’s population has received at least the first dose of vaccines.
The percentage is lower for cities like Detroit, falling to 15.1%. Earlier this month, the city of Detroit faced criticism for choosing to give up the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had said that the intention “for as long as possible” was “to stay with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines,” because they were “the best.” However, the mayor’s office later withdrew its comments and said the city was “delighted” to have three highly effective vaccines to offer its residents.
Experts agree that the key to avoiding a possible recurrence will not only be to vaccinate as many Americans as possible as soon as possible, but also to continue to pursue appropriate mitigation efforts.
Vaccinating as many people as possible will be helpful in reducing the impact of a recurrence. However, my concern is that it takes about a month and a half to get both doses and to develop complete immunity. The transmission takes place much faster than that “, said Petrie. “Therefore, continuing to disguise, social distance and avoid unnecessary community contact will be important until we can get a much larger proportion of the population fully vaccinated.”
“We all need to be careful and realize that we haven’t come out of the woods yet,” Smith concluded.