SALT LAKE CITY – It is invigorating to see the fall of the COVID-19 epidemiological curve in Utah in recent weeks, after months of rising cases; however, there are signs that the recent number of cases does not show a complete picture of COVID-19 in the state.
In the conventional sense, the spread of COVID-19 can be determined by simply examining new cases discovered by testing. But what happens when coronavirus testing isn’t exactly consistent?
There are other statistics that contribute to how COVID-19 has an impact on the state.
Confirmed cases have decreased, the positivity rate is slowly increasing
The Utah Department of Health reported 972 new cases of COVID-19 from tests taken Friday and 802 on Saturday. These figures were the smallest increases in a single day reported since early October. In fact, it has released a portion of 1,000 or more new daily cases announced by the health department dating back to October 12th. The department reported another 1,700 cases of tests on Sunday, which is also well below the rolling average of seven days before Christmas.
The epidemiological curve of the COVID-19 state and the seven-day continuous average of new cases were also declining around December 10.
That being said, testing is another figure that has fallen at the same time. For example, more than 15,000 people were tested for COVID-19 on December 9 – most tests performed after Thanksgiving, according to the health department. Apart from a few aberrant values, the state has largely reported days with less than 10,000 tests performed since then. Testing was not performed on Christmas Day, and test sites closed early on Christmas Eve, but the downward trend is visible on a chart before the holiday.
Meanwhile, the percentage of positive tests on tests performed, commonly referred to as the positivity rate, has only increased since the cases decreased. As of Monday, Utah’s average seven-day positivity rate is 24.4% through December 22. Preliminary data from the weekend indicated positivity rates closer to 30%, which means that the number will increase in the coming days.
Experts said the positivity rate is an important statistic because it can provide a better assessment of how prevalent a virus is in a community when test numbers fluctuate widely and become unsafe. In this case, the positivity rate is the biggest sign that COVID-19 is not leaving Utah, even though the number of cases is declining.
“We are certainly concerned because it represents a high level of community transmission,” said Dr. Todd Vento, an infectious disease physician for Intermountain Healthcare. “Therefore, we are constantly monitoring the situation to see if there are any further steps we need to take to resolve this.”
Vento said health officials do not know exactly why the tests are currently defective; however, they observed trends throughout the pandemic and from diseases other than COVID-19. On a smaller scale, some days – such as Sunday and Monday – produce fewer tests than other days. They are believed to be related to when someone is expected to go out in public for any reason, such as work.
“The same kind of concept after the holidays,” Vento said. “We’ve seen in the past where the numbers dropped immediately. Yesterday’s numbers were very low, which somehow – for lack of a better word – they wake up from their holiday sleep and maybe, say, Tuesday or Wednesday will start to fall. think, “OK, I’m going to be tested. This is not uncommon for other respiratory diseases.”
As testing has declined, he said the epidemiological curve and the seven-day average of the number of cases will be “may not reflect as exactly what exists in the community,” especially when considering the days when testing was limited.
That’s where the positivity rate comes into play.
“You can’t just look at the cases and the case for an average of seven days, because it won’t reflect exactly the same number of tests that were done,” he added.
As for Utah’s positivity rate, it’s been a roller coaster in recent weeks. After rising to 25.4% on November 10, it fell by 21.8% on November 22 – a few days before Thanksgiving. It rose again to a current all-time high of 27.2% on December 1 before falling to 22.3% on December 13. It has risen steadily since then, but at a much slower rate.
What happened to COVID-19 hospitalizations?
Of course, the biggest concern with COVID-19 is any impact it has on hospitals and deaths. Vento said hospitalizations in Utah because of the coronavirus have stabilized and even decreased slightly. This is a welcome sign for a statewide hospital system that was one step away from maximum capacity.
Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 usually remain after new cases, so the current state peak of 606 hospitalizations on December 4 was primarily the result of rising COVID-19 cases before Thanksgiving. Public health experts have warned about holiday gatherings for fear that hospitalizations will only increase.
It appears that Utahns heeded the pandemic’s recommendations for at least Thanksgiving. Although many new cases were still reported, there were not as many as feared. As a result, the state health department reported fewer than 500 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 just before Christmas for the first time since mid-November.
“While the nation saw a rise in growth – (there was) a rise in the fall and then a post-Thanksgiving rise for the United States – we didn’t see that same level of cases rising after Thanksgiving, because we were thinking or we were worried, which is very good, “he said.
He added that hospitals have also learned to shorten stays for patients who do not require medical care, providing recovery models at home so people can leave the hospital faster.
The data could show that COVID-19 has not left the state even when new cases are declining, but a positive sign is that new hospitalizations due to coronavirus are declining.
The state health department recently began reporting a seven-day continuous average of new hospitalizations per day, in addition to current hospitalization figures. Utah reached a seven-day average of 92.4 hospitalizations per day on November 18. It was the day 116 new Utahns were hospitalized because of COVID-19.
The average dropped to 71.2 new hospitalizations per day since December 22, the first day after the department’s period of new incomplete hospitalization data. These figures are still high, especially compared to the figures before November. However, he points out that compliance with the guidelines for Thanksgiving meetings has not only helped to reduce the increase in new cases, but also to reduce the impact on hospitals.
The jury still doesn’t know if the December holiday gatherings will be considered in any way, because the holiday season doesn’t really end until after New Year’s Day, Friday.
Outlook is heading for the New Year
All health recommendations for Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa apply to the New Year. This means that health officials recommend people celebrate the holiday at home and connect virtually with other households.
Intermountain Healthcare even promoted a New Year’s ball, made by itself, from a polystyrene ball and a wooden dowel, as a way to celebrate your holiday at home in a fun and safe way.
Looking for a fun way to celebrate New Year’s Eve safely? Try to create your own experience of dropping the ball at home! #DIY # IMTNCovid19
Posted by Intermountain Healthcare on Sunday, December 27, 2020
Vento’s colleague, Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, another infectious disease physician for Intermountain Healthcare, said last week that he anticipates that COVID-19 testing will increase after New Year’s Day. One of the main reasons for this, he said, is that colleges in Utah will begin mass weekly testing of students who remain on campus for the spring semester.
Once it starts, the positivity rate will be another key factor, as test numbers may exceed previous test standards.
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Carter Williams