As vaccine launches increase – or, in some cases, decline – in countries around the world, the SARS-CoV-2 strain has released several new characteristics of its own, primarily in the form of rapid genetic mutations. Some evidence indicates that variants in recent months have made the virus more infectious or, in one case, possibly more deadly.
Virus variants are inevitable and often benign. The new coronavirus has probably moved countless times without attracting the attention of epidemiologists. But the new strains identified in the UK, South Africa, Brazil and California have given a break to experts in infectious diseases.
Several studies indicate that the strain known as variant B117, widespread in the UK, may be 70% more transmissible than the original virus. Two analyzes in California suggested that a new strain on the west coast, called B.1.426, accounted for a quarter of the infections examined. As the news fights between the peaks of infection and inoculation efforts, it may seem that the world has entered a race between the variant and the vaccine.
“Change by mutation is pretty fast,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, a pediatrician and disaster preparedness adviser to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. “We do not know where he is going. This is the reality, that we do not know what to expect. The thing that worries us most is that it could move to become resistant to vaccines or partially resistant to vaccines. That would be horrible. We could make changes to the vaccine, but it would slow everything down. ”
In general, the arrival of new threatening strains should not change the behavior of the average person, three epidemiologists and public health advisers told the Daily Beast. “When it comes to vaccines and mitigation, that doesn’t change mitigation strategies, because we know that mitigation works,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan and a professor of public health. “But it just means we have to be even more serious about following these kinds of rules.”
“First of all, I think this reinforces the urgency of every aspect of the pandemic response,” said Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Not only vaccination, but also testing for contact tracking, taking precautions and general vigilance … will take much longer than vaccinations, because we don’t have enough vaccines in general in the short term.”
The Strain from Great Britain
Health officials in the UK first announced the detection of a new strain in mid-December – just a week after it became the first country in the world to start administering a vaccine. At a news conference, National Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that the new mutation was seen in more than 1,000 patients there, prompting a new wave of strict blockades across the country. The stem was thought to date from mid-September. By the end of December, its spread correlated with a massive increase in the number of COVID-19 infections throughout the county.
The phrase “more infectious” can be misleading, Monto said. The data on the new strain do not tell us, for example, that someone exposed to it will become infected faster than someone exposed to the old strain under identical conditions. It specifically refers to the rate at which viruses reproduce.
“Let’s look at this in terms of what we know,” Monto said. “What we do know is that this virus reproduces better. In one person, less of this virus is needed to cause an infection. How do we know that? We don’t know about this in terms of “people in one room and how many get infected with one variant over the other.” But what is very clear is that this virus is more effective and has taken over from the old virus. This tells us that it has a kind of reproductive advantage. ”
On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in a press conference that the dominant option could be up to 30 percent more deadly than the original. The findings came from a paper published by the New and Emerging Virus Threats Advisory Group – a study that was, Monto pointed out, based on a very small number of patients in a handful of settings.
“A lot of other things could be related to an increase in mortality,” he said, “including when you have, as in the UK, more people in care. It’s based on small numbers, so we can’t say anything right now. We can’t speculate. ”
“It was a statement he made,” Redlener said of Johnson, who sounded the alarm. “It simply came to our notice then. But she drew a conclusion and went public with it … For now, I will say that Boris Johnson should have kept his statement until there is more evidence. ”
The stem of South Africa
Shortly after the British strain was first announced, a variant called B.1.351 appeared in South Africa. The new strain has shared some mutations with its British predecessor, according to the CDC. It also seemed to have a higher transmission rate. However, the most worrying thing about the South African strain was a new mutation in its genetic code, which some experts feared could reduce the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Some preliminary studies – few evaluated by colleagues – found that the E484K mutation in the South African variant limited the effectiveness of antibodies by up to 50%.
“It’s definitely a concern,” Redlener said, referring to a report on Richard Engel’s studies at NBC. “It’s a concern because a legitimate scientist mentioned it. What we don’t know is how reliable his studies were that led him to this conclusion. “
Monto found the findings less alarming, noting that the studies resulted from a small body of research and very few real-world cases. “The bottom line is that he’s trying to see in a lab if the blood in the vaccines neutralizes the variants, as well as the original virus,” said Dr. Monto. “It seems that there are and so far there are several works. One says their test is good. Another says it’s not as good, but still good. ”
Other strains
Another new variant was detected in Japan among four passengers from Brazil, according to the CDC. Although relatively little is known about the Brazilian version, Reuters reported on Friday that the new strain accounted for almost half of the new infections in Manaus, the largest city in the Brazilian state of Amazonas.
Last summer, a strain of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Denmark in association with the country’s mink growing industry, according to the WHO. The country has killed 17 million miners to prevent the virus from spreading to humans.
In California, scientists found a new option in late December, shortly after the state suffered its deadliest pandemic. In accordance with Los Angeles Times, two research groups observed the new shape while looking for evidence that the British strain traveled west. Also very transmissible, it now seems to be the fastest growing version in the state. Despite the discovery, local officials and the media have largely blamed the residents, who they say have stopped complying with the blockade rules.
“It’s a very complicated question – what causes an outbreak in a certain place,” Redlener said. “A lot has to do with basic compliance. But, on top of that, there may be other strains that have not been identified. We operate in the dark on a lot of things. It’s a lot of assumptions and speculation. We just have to keep looking. ”