China’s non-interference could affect China, says the analyst

China’s “laissez-faire” approach to the military coup in Myanmar could affect the Asian giant’s strategic and economic interests in the Southeast Asian country, a political risk analyst said.

Unlike the strong condemnations and sanctions of Western powers – including the US and the European Union – China’s response to the February 1 coup and the ensuing violence have been less. Beijing has been cautious and stresses the importance of stability.

“But while China may be happy to deal with anyone in power in Naypyidaw, it is becoming increasingly clear that the chain of events that the coup triggered could threaten its interests,” said Gareth Price. lead researcher on the Asia-Pacific program of the British think tank Chatham House, said in a note in March.

Naypyidaw is the capital of Myanmar and one of the hotspots for anti-coup protests. Security forces used increasingly violent tactics to suppress the demonstrations, killing more than 550 civilians, Reuters reported.

Protesters, outraged by Beijing’s apparent lack of concern over those killed in the protests, attacked Chinese factories in Myanmar last month, the Associated Press reported. In response, Beijing called on Myanmar to “ensure the safety of life and property of Chinese enterprises and personnel” there.

“China’s frustration with the risks facing its economic interests indicates that the coup has become a major test for the already complex Myanmar-China relationship,” said Kaho Yu, a senior Asian analyst and risk consultant, Verisk Maplecroft. , in a March report.

China is a major investor in Myanmar, a border country in Southeast Asia that shares one of its borders. Myanmar is also an important part of President Xi Jinping’s initiative, Belt and Road.

“In general, Beijing expects investment in Myanmar to contribute to the security, trade and stability of its energy in its neighborhood,” Yu said.

“China claims that an economic slowdown in its neighborhood would lead to social instability and security threats, which in turn would threaten the political stability of Chinese border provinces such as Yunnan,” the analyst added.

The latest available data from Myanmar’s Investment and Management Department showed that China’s approved foreign investment amounted to about $ 139.4 million from October 2020 to January this year. Myanmar’s financial year begins in October.

Approved Chinese investment was surpassed only by Singapore, which totaled about $ 378.3 million over the same period, the data showed.

In terms of trade, China is the top destination for exports from Myanmar and the largest source of imports to the Southeast Asian country.

But Myanmar’s importance to China extends beyond the economy, Price of Chatham House said.

“Oil and gas pipelines across Myanmar diversify China’s sources of supply and help avoid the use of the Malacca Strait, a hot spot for piracy,” he said. “The development of ports and land connectivity between China and Myanmar also contributes to facilitating a greater presence of China in the Indian Ocean.”

Beijing has in the past cultivated cordial ties with both the Myanmar army and the civilian government of de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Yu said. In recent years, international pressure on Myanmar over the Rohingya crisis has pushed the country closer to China, he added.

Chinese diplomat’s state adviser Wang Yi reportedly said last month that “no matter how the situation in Myanmar changes, China’s decision to promote China-Myanmar relations will not falter.”

But any feeling from China that it will continue to be Myanmar’s major partner, no matter who is in power, can be a “misjudgment,” Price said.

“If the military is forced to back down, it could result in a more pronounced anti-China inclination, threatening (China’s) strategic interests,” he said.

Instead, Beijing could help end the coup – a move that could threaten its interests in Myanmar in the short term, but will likely advance them in the long run, Price said. Myanmar’s generals have no intention of ceding power, but will fight to maintain it without China’s support, he said.

“As its global role expands, China should learn to differentiate between different types of authoritarian government and judge its response accordingly,” Price said.

“China needs to be aware that a ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy of non-intervention will not win many friends, and whatever it wins will probably be less wholesome.