Chinese ships anchored at Whitsun Reef on March 27, 2021.
Source: National Task Force-West Philippines Sea via AP
Source: National Task Force-West Philippines Sea via AP
Based on Beijing’s official view, the Philippines has no reason to worry about Chinese fishing boats standing along a reef in the South China Sea.
The ships – originally numbered in the hundreds – were simply “sheltered from the wind”, and the Philippines should see the situation in arational light, ”said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying on March 22, when the news first appeared.
Two weeks later, more than 40 boats are still at Whitsun Reef, and the statements are becoming more and more concise. Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, Monday ADVISED China will issue daily diplomatic protests as long as the “maritime militia” remains in place, using the same language as the US to describe the fleet stationed in an area known as Julian Felipe Reef in the Philippines and Niu’e Jiao in China.
“If your goal is to take over a maritime space and an atoll without fighting for it, this is a brilliant but dishonest tactic,” he said. Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the Joint Intelligence Center of the US Pacific Command. “Only professional sailors know it’s a lie – no one” shelters “their ships in a storm zone weeks before a storm. If they are really commercial boats, they cost hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a day, for them to go crazy.
All in all, it is starting to look more and more like Beijing investigating whether President Joe Biden will take any action after pledging to work with allies in the region to discourage Chinese assertiveness. The Secretary of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines, Teodoro Locsin, has blamed the Obama administration because it failed to stop China during a similar period incident in 2012 at Scarborough Shoal, a forerunner of President Xi Jinping’s move to build military installations across the South China Sea.
“It’s a test to see what the administration is willing to do,” said Schuster, who is now an adjunct faculty member at the University of Hawaii Pacific’s Diplomacy and Military Science program. “How the US reacts will determine the next test. At this point, everything I’ve done is more rhetorical than substantive. ”
The United States said last month that it was with the Philippines, accusing China of using a “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations.” Asked about Chinese relations in a press briefing last month, Biden He said his administration “will hold China accountable for complying with the rules” in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
A big problem is how to calibrate the response. China’s use of commercial fishing vessels is tantamount to a “gray area” tactic that allows Beijing to deny anything wrong. Sending an aircraft carrier or other warships to the reef may seem like an exaggerated reaction that would make the US look like the aggressor.
On the other hand, doing nothing might seem weak. In recent years, the United States has stepped up its challenges to Chinese sovereignty in the waters, increasing the frequency of the so-called freedom of navigation operation in the disputed territory. The Biden administration also reaffirmed that the US-Philippines defense treaty covers any attacks in the South China Sea, a statement made under President Donald Trump, which came after decades of official ambiguity.
Another major complication for Biden is Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte, who has undermined the alliance while maintaining closer ties with Beijing.
“As long as President Duterte is in power, there are very limited options for the Navy,” said Rommel Ong, a retired Rear Admiral in the Philippine Navy who is now a professor at the Government School of the Ateneo de Manila University. “Lacking any coherent strategy, it is limited to filing diplomatic protests and pronouncements against China through social media.”
The Philippine statement used some of the strongest languages to date on Monday, saying an international arbitration ruling in 2016 made it clear that China has no historical rights to fish in the area, which falls within the country’s exclusive economic zone. of the Southeast. He also denounced the Chinese Embassy for criticizing Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who said the weather was good and the boats had no reason to stay. “I’m not stupid,” he said over the weekend.
“Irrational emotions”
Duterte’s government responded to a statement from China on April 3, saying the waters had been “a traditional fishing ground for Chinese fishermen for many years” and reiterated that it was “completely normal” for ships to “take refuge near the reef rough sea time. conditions. China has denied that the boats are a maritime militia and said it hopes Philippine officials will “avoid any unprofessional remarks that could further provoke irrational emotions.”
So far, Duterte has remained silent personally, although his spokesman, Harry Roque, said his views on the situation have not changed.
“The president’s position is that we will keep our rights, but this is not a reason to resort to violence,” Roque said. “He is confident that because of our close friendship with China, we will be able to resolve this.”
Damaged credibility
One factor preventing Duterte from taking a tougher position may be the need to secure vaccines: Metro Manila was blocked again last week in the midst of the nation’s worst coronavirus wave. The Philippines currently supplies most of its vaccines from Sinovac Biotech Ltd. in China, with Duterte attending a March 29 ceremony in which Chinese Ambassador Huang Zilian said the jabs are the testament to a “closer partnership in the new age.”
The US “is not so naive” this time, after the failed 2012 effort to reach an agreement for a mutual withdrawal at Scarborough Shoal “caused immense damage to US credibility in Southeast Asia,” said analyst Shahriman Lockman. senior at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia.
“Americans are careful not to intervene in this regard and do not know if they will be blamed for the escalation of the situation, which is a real possibility with the capricious leadership in Manila,” he said. “A perfect answer – that’s all that’s available for the Philippines.”