Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
China’s export boom continued in December, pushing trade surpluses to a record high that month and consolidating what is already the world’s best performing economy.
Feeding the growth of deliveries is an insatiable global appetite for home technology and health care equipment, as Covid-19 continues to grow in many places around the world. The demand is so strong that it contributes to a jams at ports, as manufacturers complain about the lack of transport containers and high costs.
Record the surplus
The booming demand for Chinese goods pushes the surplus to a record
Source: General Administration of Customs of China
Early control of the virus last year allowed Chinese factories to capitalize on global demand, while its commercial rivals were hampered. This export boom is expected to continue, even as vaccines are launched to tame the spread of the virus and allow industrial production to recover in the US and Europe.
The difficult year also highlights China’s role as a fulcrum for global supply chains, even as political tensions with the US and other trade rivals have eased.
“The biggest fix is that China’s exports have remained surprisingly resilient, despite the return of the second wave in major economies,” said Michelle Lam, an economist in the China Sea at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
Trade data showed an increase in overall demand:
- Exports rose 18.1% in dollars in December from a year earlier – slightly higher than the rapid rise of 21.1% in November – while imports rose 6.5%, both exceeding economists’ expectations
- The trade surplus of $ 78.2 billion for that month was higher than the median estimate of $ 72 billion in a Bloomberg survey of economists. For the full year, the trade surplus reached $ 535 billion, an increase of 27% compared to 2019 and the highest since 2015
- Exports to the US increased by 34.5% in December compared to a year earlier, while imports of US goods increased by 47.7%, the highest since January 2013. Click here for details of China’s exports by country and here for imports
- For the full year, the trade surplus with the US was 317 billion dollars, 7% higher than in 2019
- Only on the face masks, the factories exported the equivalent of almost 40 masks for every person in the world outside of China, according to the customs agency
“Demand for China’s goods could remain strong in the next few months, with the recent rise in Covid infections in the US and Europe,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. .
This superior performance will inevitably decline as the virus is controlled in large markets, including the US and Europe, and industrial production recovers, he added.
What Bloomberg’s Economics says …
The data show that China’s external demand is driving China’s economic recovery, and it is likely to continue in the coming months. Exports are expected to increase in the first quarter, partly due to stronger US demand for the expected economic aid package.
– David Qu, Chinese economist
For the full report, see here
Li Kuiwen, an official with China’s General Customs Administration, said the trade surplus could be maintained. growing this year, supported by an expected recovery of the global economy and stable domestic growth.
Jian Chang, chief Chinese economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, said the data supported regional evidence from South Korea and Vietnam of growing demand.
“The external recovery has continued,” Chang said. “Chinese producers have flexibly adapted their production lines to produce goods to meet demand through the new Covid era.” Both pandemic and non-pandemic goods are growing strongly, she said.
Read more: China has made 40 face masks for every person around the world
The data is unlikely to change the central bank from its position to gradually withdraw the monetary stimulus, but without a sudden change in policy, Chang said, adding that there is unlikely to be an interest rate cut or an increase this year.
Exceeding the lead
Southeast Asian nations have become China’s largest trading partner in 2020
Source: General Administration of Customs of China
The figures also showed changes in China’s trading partners last year, with the 10-member bloc in Southeast Asia rising to No. 1, followed by the European Union and the United States.
– With the assistance of James Mayger, Lin Zhu, Enda Curran, Lucille Liu and Ailing Tan