The president of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, Armin Laschet (L), and the prime minister of Bavaria and the president of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Markus Soeder, arrive at a joint press conference at a closed-door faction meeting of CDU and CSU on April 11, 2021 in Berlin, Germany.
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In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the conservative alliance of German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally chose a candidate to represent the center-right bloc in the country’s national elections at the end of this year, after months of uncertainty and delay.
Until then, neither the Christian Democratic Center-Right Union (CDU) nor its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had managed to agree on who should lead the Conservatives in the elections. September 26. Merkel announced in 2018 that she will not run for a fifth term.
However, at a meeting of the CDU board on Monday evening, a majority of senior party members voted to nominate Armin Laschet, the CDU leader and prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, as the candidate for chancellor in the elections in This year.
About 77.5% (31 members) of the party’s federal executive committee voted in favor of the party leader, according to German press reports Deutsche Welle and Reuters, citing sources, while his rival Markus Soeder received only 9 votes.
CDU wrote on Twitter during the night that there was “a long and intense debate among members of the 17 regional associations, district associations and associations about people, electoral prospects and the mood of the party” before the vote in favor. Laschet.
Soeder, who leads the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, CSU, said on Tuesday that he accepted the decision and would support Laschet, wishing him “great success for the difficult challenge ahead,” Reuters reported.
Party mood
The alliance’s inability to nominate a candidate so far had been a source of frustration for CDU-CSU officials and had not been lost by opposition politicians who could become influential in forming a new government in September.
CDU-CSU is ahead in various opinion polls, but the Greens are not far behind. Four polls conducted in mid-April in Germany supported the alliance around 28-31%, while in the same polls support for the greens ranged from 20-22%.
Strategies expect the most likely election result to be that the CDU-CSU will form a coalition with the Greens. Although there is a low chance that if the CDU-CSU works very poorly, then the Greens could form a coalition with other parties, such as the Social Democrats or the Free Democratic Party.
On Monday, the Green Party confirmed that Annalena Baerbock will be its candidate for the next German chancellor.
Jürgen Trittin, a member of the Bundestag and former leader of Germany’s Green Party, told CNBC on Monday that the party now has external chances that it may even lead the German government in September.
“I have never seen such a crisis in my political life within the Christian Democrat Conservative Party,” Trittin said, arguing that the CDU-CSU’s indecision over the candidate who will lead the bloc in the election was detrimental to the alliance.
“Even if they decide now, the other side of the party is so hurt and damaged that they will have a real problem in the election campaign and as a potential coalition partner for anyone.”
The Green Party is gaining confidence and even daring to dream that it could overtake the CDU / CSU when it comes to the September vote.
“Everything is possible,” Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Bundestag and the Green Party, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“There should be no doubt, it will be a very tough election campaign,” he said, adding: “People from all parties will be very tough on us, because the Greens say we could be the main party and that it is waking up. … every enemy up. “
Chicken game
Prior to the CDU’s overnight approval of Laschet, Holen Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, noted on Monday that the “chicken game” between Laschet and Soeder seems to be over and noted what a Laschet chancellery could mean for Germany.
The choice between Soeder and Laschet “is more style, charisma and perceived electoral appeal than major differences in substance,” he said in a note.
“Laschet is widely seen as a candidate for continuity. He has usually supported Merkel in other policies, including managing the 2015 refugee crisis. His somewhat modest style and penchant for moderate and connecting differences are similar to his approach. Merkel, “Schmieding remarked.
He added that Laschet could also “associate” with a certain division of the additional tax burden in the EU and the euro area.