Joe Biden has already cost at least one friend to run for president. Back in the Obama era, Biden spent tens of hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Once, they ate noodles at a restaurant in Beijing with Biden’s niece, and Xi once called Biden an “old friend.” In May 2019, Biden insisted that Chinese communist leaders “are not bad people.”
But much can change in a few years. In an attempt to show his toughness towards China, Biden began to describe Xi as “a robber who, in fact, has a million Uighurs. . . concentration camps. “As president, Biden says he will bring together” a united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s abusive behavior. “
But in reality, is the president-elect still too gentle with Beijing to face Xi? Could it prove that the critics are wrong?
There is no shortage of possible “friends and partners”. China’s neighbors, such as Taiwan, Japan and India, are alarmed by Beijing’s growing military assertiveness. And in countries like Myanmar, where China builds roads, pipelines and power plants, there has been a popular backlash against what locals consider a violation of national sovereignty.
Chinese diplomacy is also increasing. Take Australia, where Beijing has shed money to influence the country’s elites, from trade agreements to think tanks. In the last few years, the mood has suddenly changed: Australia has tightened security rules for foreign investment and increased defense spending in the Indo-Pacific.
When the Australian government called for an international inquiry into the origins of the new coronavirus, China’s foreign ministry described it as “shocking”, as Australia should “be a good friend”.
Britain has undergone an equally rapid transformation. Five years ago, London was Europe’s largest lawyer for involvement in Beijing. But last year, Boris Johnson’s administration put new barriers in the way of Chinese investment, citing security concerns.
At the UN, meanwhile, Xi had managed to stifle criticism – until October last year, when 39 countries joined a statement against Beijing’s rights violations. China’s record has always been terrible, but in the last year it has become undeniable: you can’t forget images of millions of Hong Kong citizens protesting – followed by mass arrests of opposition figures. Nor the indescribable material of the Uighur Muslims who were loaded, blindfolded and locked in trains.
And this before the COVID-19 coatings. Even in relatively friendly regions of China, such as Latin America, there has been public outrage over Xi’s party for its role in the pandemic. A Pew poll found that China’s “unfavorable opinion” had “grown in the last year,” from Canada to the Netherlands and South Korea.
In theory, then, Biden should be able to build his “united front.” In practice, it will be more difficult. Last month, the European Union ignored warnings from US officials, including a senior adviser to Biden, and signed a trade agreement with China. (Xi happily described it as a compromise between “the world’s two leading powers.”) EU leaders may view China as a dangerous rival, but in the end they needed business opportunities, even if it it means alienating Washington and keeping the mother in touch with Xi atrocities.
When it comes to China’s trade practices, then, Biden can see that his “friends and partners” are evaporating. It may be more successful just by implementing Trump’s “first phase” trade deal. Outgoing trade representative Robert Lighthizer argues that America is in a strong position to “own [China’s] feet to the fire ”in its promises of fair practices and purchase commitments.
Biden’s “united front” will be more achievable in terms of security, where it is expected to quietly support existing alliances such as Quad, an informal partnership with India, Japan and Australia and the Five Eyes ”. .
But when it comes to human rights, there is most obviously an openness to international cooperation. China is committed to respecting Hong Kong’s autonomy. Biden could push for this promise to be kept – perhaps through coordinated international sanctions on Chinese officials.
He could also push Congress to legislate against supply chains linked to Uighur internment camps. And since Beijing will veto any attempt by international courts to investigate the camps, Biden could empower US courts to rule.
It would be a drastic move. But if the president-elect really believes what he says – that his former friend is overseeing a “genocide” – it’s hard to see how he could do anything less.
Dan Hitchens writes from London. Twitter: @DDHitchens