Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House opens a new scenario for Cuba-United States relations, marked by hostility and heightened sanctions during Donald Trump’s tenure. Will the Obama-era thaw return?
The short-lived rapprochement faded in four years at the same pace as more than 200 Washington sanctions that pushed an already depleted Cuban economy to the fringes, under the argument of Cuba’s alleged support for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and the island’s lack of democracy.
Trump sanctioned transportation, tourism, and money transfers, banned cases involving an extensive ‘blacklist’ of companies associated with the Cuban military, paralyzed consular services after mysterious health problems from U.S. diplomats, and banned from returning Cuba to the list. from sponsors of terrorism, from which it departed in 2015.
For many it was a strategy to win votes in Florida, the epicenter of the Cuban exile.
Biden has witnessed the “thaw” as Barack Obama’s vice president and argued during his campaign that he would resume the rapprochement, at least canceling the measures hampering the relationship of the families on both sides.
ONE SIGNATURE WOULD BE ENOUGH
The question is how much room for maneuver he has and how far he will go. But also how open the Cuban government is to a new approach, which is not only the aggrieved party, but is historically more comfortable in a trench scenario.
“Biden can immediately reverse any of Trump’s sanctions by using his executive powers, because that’s how they were imposed,” said William LeoGrande, professor at the American University of Washington and author of “Covert Diplomacy with Cuba: History of the secret. negotiations between Washington and Havana “.
The bureaucracy to remove Cuba from the list of sponsors “may take a few months,” but it will not prevent the other sanctions from being lifted, he clarified.
“The elements to do this are available,” said Professor Arturo López-Levy, of Holy Names University (California), citing aspects such as Cuba’s return of several fugitives from US justice, even during the Trump administration. .
There are already voices in the US calling for the new president to give precedence to Cuba, such as Democratic Congressman Jim McGovern and important foreign policy organizations such as the Washington Office for Latin American Affairs (WOLA) or the Center for Democracy in the Americas ( CDA)).
They published a roadmap for Biden recalling that six decades of crackdowns blocked issues of mutual concern, made life difficult for Cubans, and paved the way for the influence of Russia and China.
As reasons for accelerating the rapprochement, they cite the crisis in Venezuela – Cuba’s main ally – and this year’s US celebration of the IX Summit of the Americas, a good setting for the presidents of both countries to initiate dialogue. to go.
The third reason is that, as LeoGrande explained, this is relatively simple: With a single signature, Biden can reverse Trump’s orders.
In it, analyst and former Cuban Ambassador to the European Union Carlos Alzugaray agrees, who believes that some sanctions will “ soon disappear if there is no need to wait ” for the island to leave the sponsors list, though he warned that those in Like Republican Senator Marco Rubio, they’ll claim the target was the military.
FAVORABLE: INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT AND A SMOOTH WAY
The most compelling factor for Biden to reach out is that, according to LeoGrande, these policies were not only more effective, but most Americans, business people – especially the agri-food sector – and Washington allies support the notion.
There are also issues where bilateral cooperation is essential, such as the fight against drugs, migration and the Venezuelan crisis, he said.
Alzugaray agrees, believing the decision “would be welcomed by the majority of the region’s key allies and countries, such as Argentina and Mexico”.
Remember, too, that Obama trodden the path when he reestablished diplomatic relations, signed 22 surviving agreements, and sealed his legacy with a directive that can be restored.
“It would be a clear signal at little political cost that the US is going back to soft power policies and letting go of Trump’s coercion,” said the former diplomat.
For López-Levy, Washington would also “have more influence on the (economic) reform processes taking place in Cuba”.
Another argument, supported by Cuban-Americans, is the need to normalize consular services to release immigration deals, visas, and family reunification programs.
Health collaboration to cope with COVID-19 would also be a positive factor, with an antecedent of collaborative work in Africa against Ebola, Alzugaray recalls.
AGAINST: HUMAN RIGHTS AND VOTES IN FLORIDA
The opposing factors are summed up in the numbers – some powerfully – that are systematically opposed to rapprochement as long as the island does not progress in terms of democracy and human rights, terms they “know full well Cuba will reject,” said LeoGrande.
He recalled that some Democrats also fear electoral charges in Florida, where Trump got more Cuban-American votes in 2020 than in 2016.
“Democrats will never outperform Republicans when it comes to cracking down on Cuba. Instead, they must appeal to the growing Cuban-American segment that supports reconciliation,” he said.
Alzugaray also believed that this electoral view undermines an approach in which Biden “would have to invest political capital to absorb the fallout with sectors of his party, such as New Jersey Senator Bob Menéndez, and some Republicans.”
And “in the big picture,” with the many open fronts that the new president has, “Cuba may not be a priority,” he said.
“If it does this separately in a context where the US is still overwhelmed by the pandemic crisis, it could be interpreted as a lack of adequate priorities,” López-Levy also warns.