When the sun sets at the box office for the 2020 film, it will be difficult to consider the numbers as anything less disastrous.
After five consecutive years of US revenue exceeding $ 11 billion, this year it is expected to reach a nearly 40-year low of about $ 2.3 billion. This will be 80% lower than last year, according to data company Comscore.
Globally, where markets have managed to recover more fully, ticket sales are likely to end between $ 11 billion and $ 12 billion. Last year, that total reached $ 42.5 billion. But, of course, 2020 is a year with a big asterisk.
“It’s been a year like no other,” said Jim Orr, president of national theater distribution for Universal Pictures. “I’ve never seen this small business in this industry.”
Outside of January and February, it is impossible to judge the box office of the year by pre-pandemic standards. In general, the box office is quite predictable in a normal year. But when the cinemas closed on March 20, “everything came out the window,” said Paul Dergarabedian, a senior analyst at Comscore. “The unpredictability has become constant.”
Most theaters in North America do not open for six months in a row during the summer season, which typically accounts for about 40% of the year’s earnings. In the last two years, the summer film season has grossed more than $ 4.3 billion. This year, it raised $ 176.5 million, much of it drive-in.
“The car has become the hero of the summer,” Dergarabedian said.
When indoor cinemas began to reopen in late August and early September, it had limited capacity and limited output. Currently, about 35% of theaters are open in the US and some of the larger markets, including New York and Los Angeles, remain closed.
Although there was a steady stream of new releases, the big box office hits were few and far between. Some have moved to streaming services, others have become premium digital rentals, but most have simply come out in 2021 and beyond.
Perhaps there is no more telling fact than that 2020 was the first time in more than a decade without a Marvel movie. Walt Disney Co. Superhero Factory for the past two years he has been at the top of the year-end charts with “Avengers: Endgame” and “Black Panther” and has regularly had two or more movies in the top ten.
Surprisingly, the top 10 of 2020 is a bit chaotic, consisting mostly of movies from the first two months of the year. Sony Smith’s sequel, “Bad Boys for Life,” has been No. 1 in North America since its January release, with $ 206.3 million. Globally, it ranks second after the Chinese film “The Eight Hundred”, the first time that the largest film in the world has its origins outside of Hollywood.
The only post-closing films that make the top 10 are “Tenet” by Christopher Nolan, on the eighth place, with 57.2 million dollars, and the animated sequel for families “The Croods: A New Age”, which was opened by the Day Gratitude and has earned $ 30.8 million so far to put it in 10th place.
And at least 15 of the top 100 movies were retro releases, including “Hocus Pocus,” “The Empire Strikes Back” and “The Nightmare Before Christmas.”
“The positive side of cinemas is that although people have unlimited options at home, people continue to look for the cinema,” Dergarabedian said. “People want to get out of the house and have fun. That desire has not changed, but the ability to do so has been profoundly limited. “
The way in which the opening of weekends is appreciated has even changed, as they are a reliable indicator of a film’s long-term prospects and could remain so for some time.
“The instant gratification I offered on Sunday morning after opening on Friday? It will probably not be repeated for quite some time “, said Orr.
Theaters have adopted improved security protocols and experimented with various ways to get people to sit down, including renting private theaters, but attendance in the fall and winter has remained limited.
“People go to the movies to escape. If you go to a movie theater where you have to wear a mask and you have to stay separate and you have to be very aware of your surroundings, that’s not how the theatrical experience should work, ”said John Sloss, director of Kinetic Media Consulting. “To judge this year in terms of theater attendance, I think it’s bad for what’s really going on.”
Going to the movies in 2020 is the story of an industry that employs about 150,000 people who are struggling to stay afloat until normalcy returns, which everyone expects to happen even if not in the near future. Small theater owners will benefit little from the pandemic relief package.
But the effects on businesses have been amazing and it may take some time for the full impact to be known, although there have been some historical developments and trade-offs. Some innovations were well received, such as Universal’s reference agreement with several exhibitors to shorten the theatrical window from 90 days to just 17 days, in some cases. Others, such as the Warner Bros. decision. to simultaneously release all of his 2021 movies on HBO Max and in theaters, he did not.
It’s no secret that streaming services, whether subscriptions or on demand, have filled a huge gap for movie fans looking for new content. While home options will continue to compete with theaters for the eyes and money of consumers, few believe they are a coup de grace for theaters. In general, studios do not seek to abandon the theatrical model, even if some priorities have shifted to broadcasting.
“I think there is a strong light at the end of the tunnel,” Orr said. “As vaccines continue to grow, I am 100% convinced that people will run back to the theaters when possible in their area. The model will not disappear. “
Disney CEO Bob Chapek noted recently that the company’s investors earned $ 13 billion at the box office in 2019.
“It’s not easy,” Chapek said.
Last weekend, “Wonder Woman 1984,” which was available for free on HBO Max, also grossed $ 16.7 million in 2,100 North American theaters. This number would have been a disaster before. Because of the pandemic? It’s a record.