Biden’s return to the nuclear deal with Iran is becoming increasingly difficult

DUBAI, UAE – Iran and US are in conflict.

President Joe Biden’s administration wants to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, but asks to see changes in Tehran before it lifts the heavy sanctions imposed on the country by the Trump team.

Meanwhile, Iran says it wants Washington to step up its game and make the first move, refusing to move until the sanctions are lifted.

Iran has set a deadline of Sunday, February 21, swearing that if oil and banking sanctions are not lifted by then, it will block UN inspectors from being able to access its nuclear facilities.

Political ability raises questions about Biden’s plans to save a deal that has actually had life support since former President Donald Trump ousted the United States in 2018.

The Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan (JCPOA), was led by the Obama administration and involved several other world powers. It has lifted international sanctions on Iran, offering the country 83 million in economic aid in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program, which included inspections mandated by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Any removal of IAEA inspectors “would make an agreement much more difficult to achieve; without mechanisms to monitor Iran’s nuclear program, distrust from the US and other parties to the JCPOA would deepen,” wrote Torbjorn Soltvedt, senior MENA analyst. at Verisk Maplecroft, in a research note this week.

The ultimatum is meant to put Washington in action. But it could backfire, says Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior senior at the Washington Democracy Foundation.

Iran’s threat with a deadline is “designed to increase Washington’s risks and fears about the direction of the nuclear program. The risks and fears that Tehran hopes Washington will alleviate through concessions and easing premature sanctions,” Taleblu told CNBC.

But worsening nuclear violations – even under Biden – “may help lead Europe to Washington, which now has a more limited Iran policy,” he warned.

And the Islamic Republic did not stop violating the terms of the agreement after Biden’s election, in actions that former JCPOA negotiators described as “provocative” and “serious.” The stakes have risen since May 2019, a year after the Trump administration withdrew from the deal and began imposing “maximum pressure” on the country for what it called “its destabilizing regional behavior.”

Iranian officials have previously stressed that the violations are reversible once Washington offers a waiver of sanctions.

But that relief is unlikely any time soon, as Biden’s goals with the deal face a lack of support from much of Congress, and his team wants to avoid looking “soft” on Iran.

According to Sanam Vakil, an expert in Iran and deputy head of Chatham House’s MENA program, this is not as much chicken play as it seems.

“It’s not really a chicken game. It’s about the Biden administration realizing how they want to proceed, execute and make the transition, and the internal difficulties in the US have somehow prevented what could have been a re-entry. fast, “she said. .

And the opposition, Vakil believes, is rather a debate over the order in which certain concessions will be made.

“What we see playing in the public domain is a sequencing debate,” she said.

“Iranians say publicly, ‘We need you to lift all sanctions before we do anything.’ And, of course, they will say that because they need to know where the US is, what the US red lines are – they have limited confidence in this process at the moment. “

Henry Rome, a regional analyst at Eurasia Group, says the Biden administration “intends to make an initial gesture to Iran, with the aim of demonstrating its commitment to return to the JCPOA and urging Iran to accept negotiations without the US side ”.

Such a move would be largely symbolic, but could include lifting sanctions on people, removing the US objection to an IMF loan or facilitating humanitarian trade.

“If the US provides a tangible sign of progress ahead (February 21), that date may be enough for the Iranian leadership to avoid these conditions,” Rome said.

Finally, what is much more important for the survival of the US-Iran agreement and relations is what happens on June 18 – Iran’s presidential election, which could see a much tougher, anti-American leader elected.

The advancement of the elections “will provide a clearer indication of the desire of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to support another serious effort to reach an agreement” on the nuclear issue, said Verisk’s Soltvedt.

“An agreement between Iran and the United States until then is a distant prospect, and the risk of Khamenei moving away from the JCPOA this year will remain high.”