Biden’s rejection of Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman is a ‘warning’

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – President Joe Biden’s press secretary this week delivered a poignant message to Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Jen Psaki spoke in diplomatic language at a press conference that relations between the US and Saudi Arabia – particularly that with the crown prince of the kingdom – are being wound down.

“As for Saudi Arabia, I would say we made it clear from the start that we are going to recalibrate our relationship with Saudi Arabia,” Psaki said from the White House on Tuesday.

When asked if Biden would speak to the Crown Prince, she replied, “Some of that goes back to counterpart-counterpart engagement. The president’s counterpart is King Salman, and I expect he would do so at an appropriate time. have a talk with him. I don’t have a timeline for that. “

The quotes immediately drew the attention of regional analysts and foreign policy experts, and likely leaders in the Gulf as well, as a blatant dislike of Saudi Arabia’s 35-year-old heir to the monarchy and arguably the most powerful man. in the region.

“Well, I think what Jen said, in fact, I know what she said is that the president was going to be talking to his counterpart, and this is his counterpart, the king,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price. Business Wednesday to reporters.

Price added that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will similarly work with his counterpart, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

“President Biden has said that we will review the entire relationship to make sure it represents interests and is respectful and respects the values ​​we place in that partnership,” said Price.

“We know of course that Saudi is an important partner on many different fronts, regional security, counter-terrorism are just two of them,” he added.

“The rejection of MBS is a warning to Saudi Arabia,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief MENA analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, wrote in an email Wednesday, referring to the crown prince by his initials. “It will be seen as a disapproval of MBS’s leadership, which has been characterized by unpredictable decision-making and a much less advisory approach than in the past.”

And the government’s apparent intent to overthrow the Crown Prince represents a dramatic departure from Trump’s White House, making Saudi Arabia the former president’s first foreign visit, signing major arms deals with the kingdom in spite of opposition from Congress and did not criticize the kingdom for its human rights violations.

This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as Biden promised a tougher line early on against the oil-rich Islamic monarchy. In a primary debate in early 2020, Biden promised to make Saudi Arabia “the pariah they are.”

“This is not exactly a surprising move, but it is bold and it will hurt,” Michael Stephens, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC. “There is no doubt that Psaki’s remarks were directed at the crown prince, even though he is in every way the man in charge of the kingdom.”

A number of scandals and crises that have come out of the kingdom since the crown prince took power have resulted in condemnation not only from Democrats but also from Republicans.

According to a former Obama administration official, speaking anonymously due to professional restrictions, “The Saudis in Washington are in the worst position they have ever been. It has just been covered by Trump’s White House.”

The Saudi government did not respond to CNBC requests for comment.

Biden has already paused a major arms sale to the kingdom and other Gulf allies signed under the Trump administration and has ended US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen that has led to what the UN is the world’s worst man-made humanitarian crisis.

And the kingdom came under international condemnation for the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi by state agents. US intelligence linked the death to the crown prince, something Riyadh firmly denies.

With the ongoing war in Yemen, the crackdown on prominent members of the country’s political and business elite in 2017, the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and the oil price war last year, there is no shortage of raw issues for the Biden government. “take offense,” Soltvedt wrote.

But how realistic is the Biden team’s goal of bypassing the crown prince – who is also defense secretary, next in line for the throne and has made most of the kingdom’s major decisions?

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the kingdom’s royal court, says it’s not realistic at all.

“They can’t get anything done if they don’t deal with MBS,” Shihabi told Politico. “The king is functioning, but he is very old. He is chairman of the board of directors. He does not deal with everyday matters. Ultimately, they will want to talk directly to MBS.”

King Salman, the reigning monarch since 2015, is now 85 years old.

Verisk’s Soltvedt agrees. “King Salman is the head of state and ultimately in power. But it is MBS who exercises direct control over the kingdom’s main portfolios and institutions,” he wrote. “A shift in Washington’s approach to dealing with Saudi leaders will not change that.”

While the Biden administration is expected to give lower priority to the Gulf States than its predecessor, they still remain America’s top weapons customers and regional counterterrorism partners, as well as suppliers of oil – although this is less and less the case for the United States over the year. last. .

So while the Biden team signals a shift, it won’t be a break in relations, many foreign policy experts believe.

“I think the most important thing to realize is that US policy towards Saudi Arabia has been relatively consistent over the years, regardless of which party has been in power,” said Tarek Fadlallah, Middle East CEO. at Nomura.

“There will be a slightly different tone between this White House and the last White House,” said Fadlallah. “But I don’t think it will have any impact in terms of policy towards the region or policy towards Saudi Arabia.”

CNBCs Amanda Macias contributed to this report from Washington.