President-elect Joe Biden hopes to revive Iran’s nuclear deal after taking office, but this task is becoming increasingly daunting.
News management: Iran announced today that it will start enriching uranium by 20% – at a striking distance from the level of weapons – at its Fordow underground installation.
- A few hours later, Tehran announced that it had confiscated a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the Hormuz Strait, allegedly for pollution. This is another reminder of Iran’s ability to disrupt a crucial shipping corridor.
- Meanwhile, the US and its regional partners continue to fear possible Iranian retaliation a year after the US attack that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, as well as the more recent assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The whole picture
According to Biden, Iran’s nuclear acceleration and fierce regional tensions are a consequence of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach following his withdrawal from the 2015 agreement. to compliance.
- National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNE Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that after returning to the agreement, known as the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan (JCPOA), Biden will continue further negotiations to curb Iran’s regional behavior.
- Sullivan said Iran’s ballistic missile program “must be on the table” in these negotiations.
The frame might seem to be in place, According to President Hassan Rouhani, Iran is also ready to return to compliance if the US lifts its sanctions. But today’s announcement of enrichment highlights how thorny the process will be.
- If Iran enriches significant amounts of uranium by 20%, its nuclear burst time will become “very, very short,” says Ernest Moniz, who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 agreement as Barack Obama’s secretary of energy. . “The key question is how much he earns.”
The state of the game
The move to 20% enrichment is part of a law – passed over Rouhani’s objections – that also calls for the suspension of UN nuclear inspections if sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors are not lifted by February.
- This would be a “game changer” beyond any of the steps Iran has taken so far, says Moniz, because “then it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that we know it is not engaging in an arms program.” .
Iran has also demanded compensation for damages caused by US sanctions, although Rouhani has shown some flexibility in this regard.
- More difficult may be Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s insistence that Iran is unwilling to negotiate issues beyond its nuclear program – at least not before the US lifts sanctions.
What’s next: Iran also has presidential elections in June, with a tough administration expected to replace Rouhani’s.
- Returning to the agreement after it was burned by Trump is an extremely controversial proposal.
- “It’s probably the kind of thing that is easier for an outgoing administration to do, since the JCPOA is not the most popular element in some political circles in Iran,” said Rob Malley, a former adviser to Obama’s Middle East and now president. International Crisis Group. The direction of travel will eventually be determined by Iran’s supreme leader, Malley added.
Where are things: If Biden wants a deal with Rouhani, he will only have five months.
opposition
Biden will face fierce opposition to a speedy return of the agreement from Israel and the Gulf states, as well as Republicans and some Democrats in Congress.
What are they saying: Opponents say Biden received a strong hand through Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and should play it safe.
“It’s really an economic war that the US is fighting Iran, “says Gérard Araud, former French ambassador to the United States (2014-2019) and permanent representative to the UN Security Council (2009-2014).” It is true that this gives the US leverage. “
- There have already been a number of public comments from Israeli and Gulf officials that discouraged Biden from returning to the 2015 agreement and only then trying to negotiate an agreement that addresses regional concerns.
- Sullivan’s argument is that the US will be better positioned to negotiate these issues once Iran’s nuclear program is “back in a box”.
One of the most controversial points it will probably be sequencing.
- Iran says it will return to compliance after the US lifts sanctions, while Biden says it will lift sanctions once Iran returns to compliance.
- This will require Iran to take a number of technical measures, including the transport of enriched uranium from the country, probably to Russia.
- The process could be completed in about four months, Moniz says – probably sooner if Iran goes “fully”, but slower in an organized process in which Iranian steps are associated with improved US sanctions.
The other side: The Trump administration has tried to block Biden’s way back to the JCPOA, in part by gathering sanctions on Iran for non-nuclear issues.
- Biden could lift these sanctions without congressional approval – and Iranians could ask him to do so – but Iran’s hawks hope the problem will become another domestic political minefield.
What to look for
Iran’s recent nuclear acceleration, and the threat of expelling inspectors will probably be Biden’s main short-term concern – and these acts are clearly meant to force him to move quickly.
Yes but: “Some of the measures that Iran could take could come back,” Malley added. “I think there will come a time when more pressure could mean that the Biden administration will change course.”
Flashback: The European signatories of the JCPOA – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – have worked desperately in the two years since Trump’s withdrawal to keep the agreement until the next US elections.
- Now, the candidate who made saving Iran’s agreement a top priority is two weeks away from the Oval Office.
- But even he admits that the way forward is uncertain. Tony Blinken, Biden’s election for secretary of state, said the US would work in partnership with Europe on Iran – whether or not Iran finally agreed to return to compliance.
European leaders and diplomats will try to facilitate dialogue between the US and Iran, says Araud. However, he remembers years of unsuccessful European attempts to negotiate with Iran before the Obama administration addressed the issue.
Bottom line: “I knew from the beginning that the real problem was between the United States and Iran,” he says, “and that’s even more so now.”