Russia threatens Ukraine’s borders, China is sending increasingly dangerous signals to Taiwan, and Iran is accelerating its uranium enrichment to unprecedented levels.
The whole picture: The nuclear program of Ukraine, Taiwan and Iran has always been at the forefront of potential crises that President Biden could face. But in the last few days, the lights have flashed red on all three fronts simultaneously.
News management: Within 24 hours of last Sunday, an explosion shook Iran’s underground nuclear site at Natanz, 25 Chinese warplanes entered Taiwan’s air defense zone, and Ukraine announced that the number of Russian troops massages in the Crimea and at its eastern border has risen to 80,000.
Russia has now gathered enough troops for a “limited military incursion,” CIA Director Bill Burns warned on Wednesday.
- Moscow has avoided such a clear intervention in eastern Ukraine since the war began there in 2014, but it could now strike in an attempt to push further into Ukrainian territory or provide a much-needed source of water for Crimea. busy.
- After a lot of phone calls from Washington to Kiev to signal support for Ukraine, Biden called Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and proposed a summit to discuss Ukraine and other issues.
- Game status: The European commander of the European command, General Tod Wolters, said on Thursday that there is a “low to medium” risk of Russian invasion in the coming weeks.
Threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan it is less urgent, but presents a much greater risk of throwing the United States into a direct military confrontation.
- Beijing has repeatedly threatened to take control of the island by force. Meanwhile, Biden has pursued a long-term policy of “strategic ambiguity”, with the US signaling its readiness to defend Taiwan without explicitly committing to do so.
- After Monday’s largest air raid, Biden sent three former senior US officials to Taiwan, a move that Beijing described as “playing with fire.” China reacts angrily to any gesture that treats Taiwan – a thriving democracy and a global technology center – as an independent country.
- Game status: Admiral Philip Davidson, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said there was a real and growing risk of China invading in the next few years, but that the more worrying short-term scenario was an “accident or miscalculation” leading to I will climb it.
After the apparent act of Israeli sabotage at Natanz, Iran has announced that it will begin uranium enrichment at 60%, approaching the levels required for a nuclear weapon.
- Both the attack and the Iranian response have threatened to derail negotiations aimed at saving the 2015 nuclear deal.
- Game status: Talks resumed in Vienna on Thursday, but back in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei implicit that Iran could soon move away from the table. If talks falter and Iran continues to accelerate its enrichment, there are likely to be other hot spots.
What to look for: Almost all that is missing from this crisis cocktail is another North Korean missile test.