Photographer: Anna Moneymaker / Pool / Getty Images
Photographer: Anna Moneymaker / Pool / Getty Images
US President Joe Biden is about to get the first full look at the job market he has inherited.
Economists expect the January jobs report to show a stagnant and yet high unemployment rate – remaining at 6.7% – according to a Bloomberg poll before Friday. This is almost double the pre-pandemic level at the beginning of last year.
It is estimated that the monthly data will show a slight increase in the number of jobs, compared to the loss of 140,000 jobs in December. While the US economy has shown strength in areas such as housing and manufacturing in recent months, the labor market has struggled to grow.
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to the millions of Americans who lost their jobs as a sign that the economic recovery was still a long way off.
What Bloomberg Economics says:
“The divergent ‘K’ route will be generally evident in the January report on employment, as sectors such as leisure, hospitality and restaurants / bars are witnessing significant job losses in progress. While the economic situation of displaced workers must certainly not be left uncovered, a crucial element of the employment report will be to decipher the extent to which parts of the economy continue to recover.
–Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger. For the full note, click here
Biden has requested an additional $ 1.9 trillion in financial aid to compensate for the damage caused by the pandemic. If approved by Congress, it will provide more additional unemployment benefits, state and local government aid, and additional direct payments to individuals.
This would increase the $ 900 billion package approved by lawmakers in December, which provided some support to employees and businesses. However, it is expected that the continuing threat of the virus and the hectic launch of vaccines will affect the weight of employment, especially in service industries such as restaurants and hospitality.
The US Treasury will announce this week the latest loan needs and how it intends to finance them. And the week will also include a lot of regional Fed presidents talking about the labor market and the economy, including Raphael Bostic of Atlanta, Loretta Mester of Cleveland and James Bullard of St. Louis. Louis.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank was nowhere near gaining massive support for the economy during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Here, he answers a question from Mike McKee of Bloomberg during his virtual press conference.
Elsewhere, Asian IMPs provide the latest picture of the recovery, while gross domestic product in the euro area could herald the start of a recovery. double recession. The central banks of the United Kingdom, India and Australia are among those encountered, and Canada’s employment ratio is also due.
Click here for what happened last week and below we present what is happening in the global economy.
Asia
manufacturing PMI reports from Asian countries should show the recovery in a region that has recently been stimulated by China’s strong influences. An official size of China production released on Sunday fell for the second month in January, although it remains comfortable in expansion territory.
Of India The budget will be announced on Monday, with an increase in spending, probably as the government tries to find a way out of the pandemic crisis. The central bank meets on Friday.
Decisions on central bank rates this week
South Korea’s January export data will shed early light on the recovery in momentum global trade slowed at the beginning of the year, as blockages limit activity in many major economies.
It is likely that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will decide whether to extend it state of emergency. He will weigh how much the current recommendations contained infections against economic damage to continue longer. Household spending figures for December are likely to show that consumers have already broken down spending before a renewed emergency was declared.
Finally, it’s a busy week for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe. He will announce a policy decision on Tuesday, deliver a speech on Wednesday and publish the quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday, before being grilled by a parliamentary committee later that day.
Europe, the Middle East, Africa
As the Bank of England moves away from its current dose of monetary stimulus, the focus will be on assessing the latest economic bottleneck and viability. negative interest rates as a tool for relaxation. The BOE will likely support the measure, but suggests it is in no hurry to take the costs of loans below zero.
Central banks in Poland, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Ghana, Mauritius and Egypt are also expected keep rates on hold this week.
In terms of data, GDP in the fourth quarter of euro area it will probably show that the economy has contracted, however the surprising resistance in Germany, Spain and France could mean that the region, in general, is not doing as badly as it feared. Sweden, Latvia, Serbia and the Czech Republic also publish output data.
The surprise of the fourth trimester
Germany, Spain and Belgium expanded unexpectedly at the end of 2020
Source: National Institutes of Statistics
Russia is expected to report on Monday that its economy has shrunk by 3.8% in 2020, a less dramatic hit than that seen in many economies due to its relatively small service sector.
Latin America
Peru’s consumer price data for January should raise the annual rate to almost 2%. The central bank forecasts it will slow to 1.6% this year.
The price fight
How to determine Latin American inflation targeting 2010 economies
Sources: National Statistical Agencies
In 2020, Colombia defeated Peru to record the slowest annual inflation rate among the largest economies. The data displayed on Friday will show a slight increase, but leaving the title figure still far below the target. Analysts expect Chile’s economic activity figures released Monday in December to turn negative as the uneven recovery from the recession has slowed.
Open for business
Latin American Trading Profiles: Brazil lags behind, Mexico is a global attraction
Sources: World Bank, OECD.
Brazilian data and imports of data will be seen on Monday afternoon. Surprisingly, trade plays a relatively modest role in Latin America’s largest economy, which is one of the least open in the group of 20 partners. Columbia’s central bank released the minutes of its Jan. 29 meeting late Monday, where political decision-makers kept their key rate high. minimum-record 1.75%.
Look for Brazil’s industrial production report on Tuesday to show a fourth monthly year-on-year increase for December. A decline in November would suggest that the pace of recovery is moderating.
– With the assistance of Malcolm Scott, Vince Golle, Benjamin Harvey, Robert Jameson and Alaa Shahine