US President Joe Biden wants to end the war in Yemen, but the conflict is unlikely to be resumed soon, according to Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Chief Democracy Foundation.
“In fact, if there is anything, I think this will make the conflict worse,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.
Biden announced last month that the United States would withdraw its support for the offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen.
Previous administrations under Donald Trump and Barack Obama have supported the Saudi-led alliance in its intervention in the Yemeni civil war.
The Yemeni civil war began in 2014, when Houthi rebels took control of the capital Sanaa from the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
A year later, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Sunni Arab states in support of the Yemeni government to eliminate the Houthi, a Shiite-majority militia backed by Iran.
We will simply hope that a militia backed by Iran will come to the table and act reasonably. Unfortunately, I think it’s a thought of desire.
Jonathan Schanzer
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
According to the United Nations, the war has already caused about 233,000 deaths – including more than 100,000 deaths from indirect causes, such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure.
Schanzer said Biden’s move would not help end the war in Yemen because the United States has no concessions to the Houthis, who now have fewer incentives than before to compromise.
“What the Biden administration has done is it has taken the military option off the table for the United States, even by proxy through the Saudis,” he said.
Diplomacy is the only option
The United States removed houthi from being designated as a foreign terrorist organization and removed them from the list of the specially designated global terrorist.
“What is left now is diplomacy,” Schanzer said.
“The reality we are facing now is that we have really taken all the other levers on the table and we will simply hope that a militia backed by Iran will come to the table and act reasonably,” he said. . “Unfortunately, I think this is a thought of desire.”
He noted that the Houthis had intensified their strikes, even though US Special Envoy to Yemen Timothy Lenderking had begged them to negotiate.
The smoke rises above the residential area following the Saudi-led coalition airstrikes targeting Houthi-held military positions on March 7, 2021 in Sana’a, Yemen.
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Schanzer said Saudi Arabia’s ongoing military operations could be “one of the few levers” the United States could use in talks with the Houthis.
However, he acknowledged that there is an aversion to being involved in the conflict. “It seems … as if the Biden administration is a little tied up,” he said.
For now, it is unlikely that progress will be made towards ending the war in Yemen, he said, pointing to aggression by the Houthis.
“With the swarm drone attacks and the ballistic missile attacks and other acts of violence they have carried out in the Saudi state, it is very, very difficult to imagine that the Saudis will want to return to retaliation,” he said. . .
– Amanda Macias from CNBC contributed to this report.