Top members of Biden’s COVID response team warn internally that the US may not reach the herd’s immunity until Thanksgiving or even early winter – months later than originally estimated – according to two senior government officials.
In an interview with CBS News this week, President Joe Biden suggested some of these concerns, saying it would be “very difficult” to reach the herd’s immunity – a population-level virus resistance – “long before the end summers ”with the current daily rate of approximately 1.3 million doses of vaccine. Other senior officials working on the federal government’s COVID-19 response say they are concerned about long-term vaccine delivery and the impact on herd immunity and have begun exploring ways to expand U.S. production capacity, possibly through us. partnerships with external pharmaceutical companies.
Beyond supply problems, however, senior health officials say they are increasingly concerned about COVID-19 variants in the UK and South Africa, the likelihood that more variants will appear in the coming months and the possibility that these variants to evade vaccines. There is some evidence to suggest that both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines protect against variant B117 in the UK, although a recent study shows that a new mutation could make vaccines less effective. Data collected by Novavax and Johnson and Johnson clinical trials in South Africa suggest that their vaccines are less effective against the rapidly spreading variant in the country. South Africa has also recently said it is stopping the launch of the AstraZeneca vaccine, as evidence from clinical trials has suggested that the vaccine does not work well against the variant.
Together, recent data has alarmed Biden administration health officials, who are now raising questions about what more can be done to not only shorten the herd’s immune history – not just to bring Americans back to normalcy. but also to ensure that the country does not experience another increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Officials have spent the past few days discussing ways to speed up genome sequencing to track variants and how to respond to the message that Americans need to follow public health guidelines more closely to reduce transmission as cases of B117 variants begin to grow.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, who previously estimated that about 75 percent of the U.S. population should be vaccinated to get herd immunity, said in an interview that he is still “cautiously optimistic” that the country can achieve this goal by the beginning. the fall.
“I still think it’s possible,” Fauci said. “As I said, once we get to mass vaccination, when the general public starts receiving it by the end of spring – April, May, June … and we go beyond any hesitation about the vaccine, then we should be able to 70 or 75% reaches this. We are going in the right direction. “Fauci deceived this prediction by emphasizing that he has ongoing concerns about the new COVID-19 variants.
In a press conference on Monday, Fauci said the modeling indicates that the B117 “could become dominant by the end of March.” “This is worrying news,” he said. “The two things we can do is, A, make sure we comply with public health measures … and, B, vaccinate as many people as we can.” Vaccine rates have begun to improve across the country in recent days. And the Biden administration continues announce increases in the number of doses that states receive each week.
However, the director of the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, said Monday that the proliferation of variants “remains a major concern and a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we see.” Starting this week, 699 variants of cases were confirmed in 34 states, with 690 of these cases being variant B117, the variant first reported in the United Kingdom, Walensky said.
“The good news is that even with B117 as the dominant option … cases have dropped when people are out of touch, when people are wearing masks … This is the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak.”
– former CDC director Tom Frieden
“The virus will continue to move no matter what we do. The types of mutations we see will change as more people are immunized. And natural immunity will continue to put evolutionary pressure on the virus. So we will see different types of mutations that can help it get rid of vaccine protection or become more transmissible, ”said Rajeev Venkayya, president of the vaccine business Takeda Pharmaceuticals, which is not involved in COVID’s response. “I think the first thing that will affect the offer [and access], right now has several vaccines, proving the effectiveness and safety. And there, I think the story is very, very promising. ”
As the threats of the new variants become clearer, the message of both Biden officials and health experts is clear: Return to the basics. Follow the public health guidelines that the CDC has recommended over the past year – masks, social distancing, and limited indoor contact.
“The more transmissible these strains of viruses, the higher the threshold for herd immunity. The B117 variant … is very worrying, “said Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC. “The good news is that even with B117 as the dominant option in the UK and elsewhere … cases have gone down when people have no contact, when people wear masks, when you have people who don’t share indoor air with people who don’t I’m in your household. That’s the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak. “
However, many cities across the country are moving in the opposite direction and are beginning to loosen restrictions. In New York and New Jersey, for example, officials have begun to allow indoor dining and other indoor events, such as weddings. The Iowa governor has just lifted the state’s masked mandate.
Walensky pushed back against these new guidelines, telling reporters that he discouraged any action to weaken the disguise guidelines. “We are still at over 100,000 cases a day,” she said. “I don’t think we’ve controlled this pandemic yet. We still have this emerging threat of variants. And I would simply discourage any of these activities. We really need to keep all mitigation measures in play here if we are to really gain control of this pandemic. ”
Atul Gawande, a former member of the COVID-19 advisory board for President Biden’s transition, said in an interview that vaccination is not the only way to combat the new variants.
“We will need more than vaccines when it comes to strains. We have a very high viral circulation rate. So we will continue to generate new strains. The fact that we have already seen strains that have a low efficacy for vaccines suggests that we could oppose it, ”said Gawande. “We will have a year in which it will take a long time, not just to reach people. We will have significant pockets of the population who will not yet receive the vaccine, either because they do not want to, or do not want or want to wait. We will have significant traffic. Variants are increasingly defeating monoclonal antibodies. ”