WASHINGTON – More than a century after the killing of about 1.5 million Armenian civilians by the Ottoman Empire, President Biden is preparing to declare that the atrocities were an act of genocide, according to officials familiar with the internal debate. The action would signal that the US commitment to human rights outweighs the risk of further breaking the US alliance with Turkey
Mr Biden is expected to announce the symbolic designation on Saturday, 106 years after the start of what historians call a years-old and systematic death march that modern Turkey’s predecessors began during World War I. He would be the first American president to meet. do so, although Ronald Reagan made brief reference to the Armenian genocide in a 1981 written statement on the Holocaust and both the House and Senate approved measures in 2019 to make his recognition a formal issue of US foreign policy.
At least 29 other countries have taken similar measures – especially in Europe and America, but also Russia and Syria, Turkey’s political opponents.
An American official who knew about the administration’s talks said Mr Biden had decided to issue the statement, while others in the government and foreign embassies said it was widely expected.
Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, declined to comment on Wednesday, except that she mentioned that the administration will have “more to say” on the issue on Saturday.
Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian said in an interview on Wednesday that “recognition by the United States will be a kind of moral beacon for many countries.”
“This is not about Armenia and Turkey,” Mr Aivazian said. “It is about our obligation to recognize and condemn past, present and future genocide.”
The appointment and whether Mr Biden will issue it were seen as an early test of his administration’s relations with the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The two men have had a somewhat difficult relationship in the past, unlike the generally warm treatment Mr. Erdogan received from President Donald J. Trump, and the genocide statement could provoke a backlash from Turkey that risks co-operation in the conflicts. regional military or diplomatic efforts. Past US presidents have refrained from the statement for this very reason, and Mr Biden may still change his mind about issuing it.
While Turkey agrees that fighting between Ottoman Muslims and Christian Armenians during World War I has led to widespread deaths, its leaders have firmly rejected the killing campaign that began in 1915 as genocide.
However, Turkish officials have been preparing for the genocide declaration since Mr Biden committed it during his presidential campaign, and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned earlier this week that he would restore the already strained relationship between the two. allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“Statements that have no legal obligation will have no benefit, but will damage connections,” Mr Cavusoglu said in an interview with Turkish broadcaster Haberturk. “If the United States wants to worsen ties, it’s up to them.”
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The legal definition of genocide was not accepted until 1946, and officials and experts said Mr Biden’s statement would carry no tangible sanction beyond humiliating Turkey and contaminating its history with an inevitable comparison to the Holocaust.
“We strongly oppose attempts to claim that this deliberate and organized effort to destroy the Armenian people is anything but a genocide,” a bipartisan group of 38 senators wrote in a letter to Mr Biden last month urging them to do so. the statement . “You have rightly said that American diplomacy and foreign policy must be rooted in our values, including respect for universal rights. These values require us to recognize the truth and do all we can to prevent future genocides and other crimes against humanity. ”
Mr Biden seems to be showing that his commitment to human rights – a mainstay of his administration’s foreign policy – is worth a step back.
The genocide statement states that the United States is “willing to take geostrategic blows to our values,” said James F. Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Turkey, who served as a national security official for the three presidents who immediately preceded him. Mr. Biden.
Mr Jeffrey, now the Middle East chairman of the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said there was little risk of Turkey returning to Russia, Iran or other US opponents to replace its alliances with the West.
But, he said, Mr Erdogan could easily try to prevent or delay specific policies to aggravate the Biden administration, especially in Syria, where Turkey’s ceasefire force with Russia has already narrowed humanitarian access to the sea. Black, in which American warships must first pass through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles in support missions in Ukraine.
“It may be harder to get Erdogan to accept specific policies,” Mr Jeffrey said.
He also raised the prospect that Turkey could force meticulous analysis to slow down non-NATO operations at Incirlik Air Base, a track station for US forces and equipment in the region. Or, Mr Jeffrey said, Turkey could do something to provoke new sanctions or re-impose suspended sanctions, such as taking military action against Kurdish fighters allied with US forces against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria.
Pentagon officials also noted the value of Turkish forces remaining in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops and other coalitions until 9/11; Kabul and Ankara have a long-standing relationship that will allow troops to remain in Afghanistan after NATO leaves.
Tensions between Turkey and the United States erupted in December, when the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Ankara for its acquisition and then tested a Russian missile defense system that Western officials said could expose NATO security networks in Moscow. The sanctions were imposed in the last month of Mr. Trump’s presidency, three years after Turkey bought the missile system and only after Congress demanded it as part of a military spending bill.
Mr. Trump has clearly promised to help Armenia last fall during his war against Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, citing the politically influential Armenian diaspora in the United States. His administration took a more balanced approach in trying to reach a peace agreement with Russia and France, and Armenia eventually ceded the disputed territory in the conflict with Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey.
In Wednesday’s interview, Armenian Foreign Minister Aivazian took advantage of Turkey’s military role in the Nagorno-Karabakh war as an example of what he described as “a source of expanding instability” in the region and the East Sea. Mediterranean.
He said the designation of the genocide would serve as a reminder to the rest of the world if malignant values were not countered.
“I believe that bringing dangerous states into the international order will make our world much safer,” Mr Aivazian said. “And we will witness fewer tragedies, fewer human losses, once the United States reaffirms its moral leadership in these troubled times.”