There are only 10 weeks left in the American war in Afghanistan – at least on paper.
Why does it matter: Donald Trump has promised a full withdrawal of troops by May 1 as part of a deal with the Taliban a year ago. President Biden must now decide whether he can bear the risks of honoring him.
The whole picture: Under the agreement, the Taliban pledged to reduce violence, engage in peace talks with the Afghan government (which was not a party to the Trump-Taliban agreement) and ensure that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorist groups such as – Qaeda.
- The Taliban have stopped targeting US and NATO troops, but continue to attack Afghan forces. Intra-Afghan peace talks have stalled and the Taliban have refused to cut ties with al-Qaeda.
- Meanwhile, Trump withdrew the number of US troops to 2,500 from about 13,000 before leaving office. NATO allies still have 8,000 troops in the country.
- Flashback: The number of troops increased to 100,000 under Barack Obama. The most prominent domestic opponent of Obama’s rise was Biden, who has long supported a smaller counter-terrorism operation.
Game status: The Pentagon has accused the Taliban of failing to meet its commitments, but says the deal remains operational. Biden also kept the man who negotiated it, Zalmay Khalilzad.
- NATO has not decided whether its troops will remain beyond May, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week. The alliance’s decision will be closely linked to Biden’s.
Biden has three broad options.
1. Get out on time.
- A full exit before May could lead to the “collapse of the Afghan state” and the “renewal of the civil war,” according to a recent report by the Afghan Study Group, a congressional commission chaired by former Joint Chiefs of Staff Joe Dunford.
- The Commission also warned that Afghanistan could once again become a base for terrorist groups plotting against the US within “18 months to three years”.
- If Biden eventually ends the American war in Afghanistan, he may be forced to see cities fall to the Taliban and hard-won freedoms for Afghan women to be wiped out.
- The argument for the complete withdrawal is that there will never be a happy end to this war and 20 years is long enough.
2. Get out of the business and return to a “conditions-based” approach.
- The Taliban are likely to resume attacks on US and NATO forces and withdraw from the intra-Afghan peace process.
- This would allow the US to face once again an open commitment to Afghanistan and the prospect of sending additional troops if conditions deteriorate.
- The argument for this approach is that the Taliban have no intention of maintaining the end of the agreement and America has put too much into the fight to see its gains canceled.
3. Look for an extension until the deadline and put a new emphasis on the peace process.
- That would save Biden time and give intra-Afghan talks a chance.
- But it would require the Taliban to agree to an expansion just as their main goal – the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan – comes to the fore.