President-elect Joe Biden
Pence refused to register to plan the cancellation of the election, according to lawyers, the announcement of the New Lincoln Project shows the Trump border wall built of tombstones of COVID-19 victims. MORE faces key challenges in reshaping US relations with the UK and the European Union even after last week’s conclusion of the Brexit trade agreement ending the UK’s exit from economic union.
The agreement means that the UK and the EU will not have to spend the majority of 2021 or more to analyze it on Brexit, which would have distracted attention from a list of issues approaching, involving the international community, from COVID-19 to China.
“It means less of a headache for him. He avoided a few bullets, “said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior nonresident at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about Biden.
“It means that two traditional American allies in Europe are not defeated, so Biden does not need to play peacefully from day one.”
In a way, the deal is an early success for Biden, whose victory in the November election added to the already high pressure that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced to reach an agreement with the EU before the end of the year.
The new agreement has met a major goal of Biden, ensuring that there will be no hard border between Ireland, part of the EU and Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom.
Biden wanted to make sure that the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland was not jeopardized by Brexit.
“Britain has heard a clear message from Joe Biden: ‘Don’t mess with the Good Friday Agreement,'” said Heather Conley, senior vice president at CSIS and former deputy secretary of state in the Office of European and Eurasian Affairs under George W. Bush. “They heard that message and they responded.”
However, Brexit can create more challenges than opportunities for Biden, who along with former President Obama opposed Britain’s exit from the EU.
The top of the list will be sorting out how US companies will be affected by the transaction. For decades, the United Kingdom has been a base and a conduit for American companies seeking access to the European market. Now that the UK and the EU have split up, the Biden administration will have to set the rules for US companies involved in any kind of transatlantic trade.
“The next administration will have to pay close attention to the negative impact of the new agreement on US companies in the UK,” said Conley. “The first priority is to make sure that American companies and their employees do not accidentally become collateral damage.”
For example, last week’s trade agreement did not cover trade in services or financial problems, both major components of modern economic trade.
The UK will seek to negotiate a trade deal with the United States, but Conley said the absence of a financial services agreement between the UK and the EU will complicate those efforts.
Biden himself rejected the idea of a quick trade agreement.
“I will not enter into any new trade agreements with anyone until we make major investments here, at home, in our workers and in education,” he told The New York Times in early December.
Another complication is that the fast-track law preventing Congress from changing trade agreements – something seen as a necessity to negotiate such pacts – expires in a few months.
Ben Judah, a senior non-resident member of the Atlantic Council, says Brexit also presents some opportunities for the United States.
When it was part of the EU, the United Kingdom was forced to join France, Germany and other EU members against the US in certain trade disputes.
Now, if he wants to deal with a problem with the US, he can do so and put more pressure on his former EU colleagues. The EU and the US, for example, are now involved in major disputes over aerospace subsidies, digital taxation and privacy.
The same is true for a wider range of foreign policy issues.
“The United States does not really have so many close Democratic allies on the world stage who share opinions about China and Russia. There is only a handful of them, and Great Britain is one of them, “Judah noted.
For example, the EU and China would be on the verge of a major investment agreement, with the support of all 27 EU member states. Some argue that a pre-Brexit UK could have expressed concern or even dropped the deal.
Strong collaboration between the UK and the US could help set a standard when facing China or on other Biden priorities, such as climate change.
However, Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute says Brexit’s overall direction is a blow to Biden’s foreign policy ambitions.
“From a strategic point of view, it is the reality that for a multilateral administration, Brexit is an obstacle,” he said.
There are also concerns in the UK that Brexit will make the UK a lower priority for the US, special relationship or not, due to its size over the EU as a whole.
“Suddenly, we are no longer an irreplaceable bridge between Europe and America. Now we are less relevant to both, “said former British Conservative Prime Minister John Major last month. “In recent decades, we have consoled ourselves that we are” putting more weight on international affairs. ” I think it was true – but that was then, and that is now. “
Kirkegaard said the UK’s strategic importance is diminished and that if the US wanted to choose Trump-style trade struggles, it would now have an easier time with Britain.
The Biden administration may also want to think twice about taking measures that might seem to “reward” Brexit, such as concluding favorable trade agreements.
“If you are the Biden administration, you fundamentally consider the EU as a strategic partner in everything from China to climate change. So you don’t want the EU to continue to split, “Kirkegaard said.
“There is an incentive to signal to other countries that they do not want to reward you for leaving the EU.”