Professional bettor Mark DeRosa was on a plane back from Atlantic City after last year’s Super Bowl, when he got a clear picture of what will prove to be one of the highest scores of his career.
DeRosa believed that Tom Brady would leave New England out of season and that Tampa Bay was one of the most likely landing places. However, the sports cards disagreed and listed the buccaneers around 50-1 in their odds about where Brady would play in the 2020 season. Bookmakers made Brady to returns to New England as a heavy favorite.
“The books were priced as if they had a 75% chance of returning [to New England]”DeRosa said.” I thought there was a 75% chance that it wouldn’t come back, so the market was really far away. “
While in Atlantic City for the Super Bowl, DeRosa placed two $ 500 bets with DraftKings on Brady playing the Buccaneers, 50-1 and 40-1. Then, on the plane back to Florida, he decided he wanted to go down more to Tampa Bay to win the NFC and the Super Bowl next season. He should have convinced his old college friend and betting partner Zack White that Bucs was a good bet.
Tampa Bay had just finished a 7-9 campaign in which defender Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions. It was the Buccaneers’ third consecutive losing season and they were again considered long shots, with Super Bowl odds in the 65-1 range.
“He had to talk to me a lot,” said White, a respected Las Vegas gambler. “His reasoning is almost Brady, he was going to go there.”
White asked DeRosa what he thought were Brady’s chances of landing in Tampa Bay, “because if not, then this bet is kind of awful.”
DeRosa said she has a suspicion, a well-motivated one, based on several signs that Brady is leaving New England. DeRosa recalled an ESPN story from 2018 that highlights a rift between Brady, Patriots coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft. In August 2019, DeRosa read that Brady put his mansion in Massachusetts up for sale and thought it was significant that the six-time Super Bowl champion would let the contract end for the first time in his career.
DeRosa thought Tampa Bay – due to coach Bruce Arians’ dissatisfaction with Winston, a roster of players, hot weather and a lack of income taxes – was one of only a few handles for Brady.
“The worst case scenario is that you have [Tampa Bay] 30-1 to win the NFC and 60-1 to the Super Bowl, and that’s just the market price, “DeRosa said with White in February last year.” If it happens, it will be like 5-1 and 10-1, and I really think it will happen. I don’t think he’s coming back. I think he’s going somewhere else. “
White was convinced and went to work in Las Vegas, placing several thousand dollars on the buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 65-1 and 60-1. Meanwhile, in Florida, DeRosa was monitoring odds on New Jersey sports cards and saw that Borgata opened the Bucs 35-1 to win the NFC. DeRosa he immediately booked a flight back to Atlantic City and placed a $ 8,000 bet on Tampa Bay to win the conference 35-1.
When DeRosa and White finished their bets, they had about $ 20,000 invested in the Bucs, at a rate of 65-1 to win the Super Bowl and 35-1 to win the NFC. Each of them held smaller positions in several teams, DeRosa on the Los Angeles Chargers and White on the Saints, but the biggest investment was on the Bucs.
On March 20, Brady signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers, whose Super Bowl odds have dramatically improved on sports books. When the season began, Tampa Bay was around 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and 5-1 to win the NFC, as DeRosa had anticipated.
In the middle of the season, things didn’t look great for Bucs. They lost three of four in November, including a 38-3 loss to the Saints, to fall to 7-5.
“It was a little frustrating,” White said with a giggle about the mid-season caress in Tampa Bay, “but it’s the NFL, man, don’t count anyone until the end.
“There’s always been so much value locked into those big money tickets,” White added. “You could have blocked a lot of profit before the season even started with the numbers we had.”
Each covered a bit of risk, taking the Washington football team +9.5 in the divisional round of the playoffs against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won by eight. For the most part, though, they’ve held on tight and intend to do the same for the Super Bowl. Buccaneers are 3-point subjects for Kansas City bosses.
“I don’t know how to cover risks,” DeRosa said.
Both in the late 1930s, DeRosa and White participated together in the Appalachian State and bet professionally for over a decade. They have already earned six-figure profits on the Bucs and are in a position for the highest scores of their careers in any sport if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl.
“We had about $ 11,000 to win $ 400,000 at the NFC Championship,” DeRosa said. “And then we have $ 8,000 or $ 9,000 to win the Super Bowl 60-1.
– So go Bucs.