Be prepared: long-distance travel may not start until 2023

Photographer: David Gray / Bloomberg

As coronavirus vaccines began to be released late last year, there was a palpable sense of enthusiasm. People started browsing travel sites, and airlines became optimistic about flying again. Ryanair Holdings Plc has even launched a “Jab & Go campaign ”along with images of 20 years on vacation, drinks in hand.

It doesn’t work that way.

To begin with, it is not clear that vaccines prevent travelers from spreading the disease, even if they are less likely to catch it on their own. Even the photos are not proven against the most infectious mutant strains that scared governments from Australia to Britain to close, rather than open, borders. An ambitious pressure from carriers for digital health passports to replace mandatory quarantines that kill travel demand is also challenging and has yet to win. World Health Organization.

This grim reality has pushed back expectations on any significant recovery in global travel by 2022. This may be too late to save the many airlines, with only a few months of cash left. And the delay threatens to kill the careers of hundreds of thousands of pilots, flight crew and airport workers who have not worked for almost a year. Rather than a return to global connectivity – one of the economic miracles of the jet age – prolonged international isolation seems inevitable.

“It is very important for people to understand that, at this point, all we know about vaccines is that they will effectively reduce your risk of severe disease,” said Margaret Harris, a WHO spokeswoman in Geneva. “I haven’t seen any evidence yet to indicate whether or not to stop the transmission.”

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To be sure, it is possible to shut down the trip on your own – without the need for vaccine passports. If the blows begin to reduce infection and death rates, governments could gain enough confidence to withdraw quarantines and other border borders and rely more on Covid-19 pre-flight passenger tests.

The United Arab Emirates, for example, has largely removed entry restrictions other than the need for a negative test. While UK regulators have banned Ryanair’s “Jab & Go” announcement as misleading, discount airline chief Michael O’Leary still expects almost the entire population of Europe to be inoculated by the end of September. “This is where we are freed from these restrictions,” he said. “Short-distance travel will recover strongly and quickly.”

For now, however, governments generally remain wise about receiving international visitors, and the rules are changing at the slightest sign of trouble. Witness Australia, which closed its borders with New Zealand last month after New Zealand reported a Covid-19 case in the community.

New Zealand and Australia, who pursued a the successful approach to eliminating the virus, said both borders will not open fully this year. Meanwhile, travel bubbles, such as the one proposed between the Asian financial centers in Singapore and Hong Kong, have not yet taken action. On Sunday, France tightened international travel rules, while Canada is preparing to impose tougher quarantine measures.

“Air traffic and aviation are really down the list of priorities for governments,” said Phil Seymour, president and chief consultant at UK aviation services firm IBA Group Ltd. “It will be a long way from that.” “.

The pace of vaccine launch is another sticking point.

While vaccination rates have improved in the United States – the world’s largest air travel market before the virus struck – inoculation programs have been far from the aviation panacea. In some places, it’s just something people can argue with. Vaccine nationalism in Europe has dissolved into supply ranks and who should be protected first. The region is also fractured if a jab should be a ticket for unrestricted travel.

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