Barcelona has a new president, Joan Laporta, who, incidentally, is also its former president, and speculation abounds about what could happen next.
Scenarios range from a total loss – over a billion dollars in debt, the expiration of Lionel Messi’s contract, a global pandemic that is devastating the football economy – to “What? spoke about the signing of Erling Haaland, from Borussia Dortmund, and Kylian Mbappé, from PSG.
As is often the case, the reality is somewhere in between. There are reasons to fear the worst, reasons to be cautious with optimism and some reasons to rejoice, even a few days after failing to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time since 2007.
A clever and responsible maneuver by Laporta could keep Barcelona at the top or at least close to the top of the club’s football for the coming seasons. But it could also continue to tangle and sink to unrecognizable depths. But this is good news.
1. There are two great teams in Europe, and the rest … well …
Manchester City is far above everyone else and probably the same can be said for Bayern Munich. They are financially strong teams and, although they will have to make some adjustments in the summer (the former needs a central striker and the latter a central defender) they are doing well. Everyone else has problems to solve on the field, at the bank or in the club’s accounts. Barça could be worse than the big clubs in Europe in many ways, but they all have problems.
2. Your debt is monstrous, but debt is only a problem if you can’t pay it
The “short-term” debt of almost $ 800 million is quite frightening. Financial blogger Swiss Ramble explains in detail how Barcelona is so big compared to other clubs and why it is worrying. However, as long as you can refinance, there is room for maneuver, and the fact is that, at the moment, there is a lot of equity played in football and interest rates remain low.
They may not receive too much and to some extent may end up giving the hit for later, but they will get a deal.
3. The “More than a club” rules apply, which is a double-edged sword, but in this case it is a positive net.
The structure of Barcelona – with a council elected by its members – means that granting a loan is more like a local government loan. At first glance, this is not a good thing: elected managers are not as well-employed because, unlike private investors, they do not play with their money. They may give up external pressure and take unreasonable risks for the sake of short-term popularity, so that lenders perceive them more.
This is true to some extent, though not as much as in the past. On the other hand, Barcelona’s public status gives it a little more leverage with creditors. One thing is for a bank to threaten to sue a US mutual fund club or the Russian oligarch if they fall behind in payments. And it is completely different to go against a public fund like Barcelona, with tens of millions of followers and a new direction that inherited the disaster.
In terms of public relations, if Barça owes money, the supplier is more likely to want to renegotiate and have a good image in the press – “See? We’re helping Barça get out of the hole and we’re not bad!” – in exchange for calling lawyers and collectors.
4. There is a backbone of top talent, especially young people
Let’s put Messi aside for a moment and look at the rest. Marc-Andre ter Stegen (28), Frenkie de Jong (23), Pedri (18) and Ansu Fati (18) are undoubtedly top level players, being among the best in the world in their roles. Ronald Araujo (22), Sergino Dest (20) and Ilaix Moriba (18) are on the right track to reach this level.
If you really want to see the world through Barça glass, you could include Riqui Puig (21), Óscar Mingueza (21) and Francisco Trincao (21) in that list and maybe add Carles Alena (23) and Jean to the loan. -Clair Todibo (21). I will not go that far, but among the last six there will certainly be one who will reach the highest level and a few help collaborators. Given their ages, it’s not bad at all.
5. Despite the ups and downs, some players have shown that they do not need to be replaced immediately.
Jordi Alba is 31 years old, but he had the best campaign in recent years and could offer a few more seasons (he is hired until 2024 inclusive anyway). Clement Lenglet (25 years old) is signed until 2026 and, although he does not convince everyone, he is a useful player. Even Sergio Busquets (32 years old), who had a bad series this year, can give you another year or two under certain conditions.
6. Everyone is financially bad, it’s not just your case … which means the football ecosystem has changed
Transfer and salary expenses will almost certainly fall in the summer, as there is less money in the system. This hurts because it’s harder to give up assets to get money fast. Barça has had the highest salary in the world for several years, and the others simply do not want to take over some fiascos at the Camp Nou with excessive salaries. But the lack of money in the system works in two ways. It also means that there will be less competition for the guys you want to keep, especially for the ones you want to extend the contract to, like Pedri or Ousmane Dembélé. And if you have to make new signatures, they should, according to the same principle, be much cheaper.
7. Defective contracts do not last forever and in some cases can be negotiated
This may not work with players like Samuel Umtiti or Philippe Coutinho: you will be employed in their contracts until 2023. The same will happen with Miralem Pjanic (30) until 2024. Okay. They will magically disappear from the payroll in a few years. (And that’s important when you’re making projections and building your three-year plan.) But you can go to someone like Gerard Piqué – who is 34 and has a contract until 2024 and who also loves the club – and say, ” Gerard, we need your help … we’re in trouble. He is extremely rich. For starters, he’s married to someone who has more money than him and is likely to have ambitions to get a role after retirement … why not at least try?
And then there is Sergi Roberto, who will conclude his contract at the end of next season. This is the only club you know, they were injured all season, would you say no more years and a little less money?
8. Barça’s economic model means that they have absorbed more of the negative effects of COVID-19, but they should enjoy more of the positive ones when this is over.
Camp Nou is the largest stadium in European football and its closure has meant that the public has gone from an average of 75,000 people per game, before the pandemic, to zero since then. Barcelona’s museum is the third most visited in Spain – its revenue has dropped to zero.
You don’t have to be a genius to see how, in absolute terms, the closures have affected Barça to a much greater degree than other clubs. But when everything reopens, the revenue will return in time. And that will also have a more positive impact on Barça than on others.
9. Ronald Koeman’s contract is valid until 2022
He made mistakes and maybe not the long-term solution, worse the Dutchman and also a former Barcelona player exceeded expectations in terms of how he managed to redirect the ship and in terms of accepting it among the players. . The fact that Barcelona is still in the race for the internal double, despite Messi’s bureaufax, the resignation of José María Bartomeu, the disaster in the summer market, the financial implosion … at some point, all this means that you deserve credit .
The good thing is that if Barça have to go in the opposite direction, it will not cost them to let him go. And if he stays, he will not be in a position to be as demanding as a profile coach.
10. If you are smart, you can make the situation regarding Messi beneficial for everyone
To put it simply, you have to put some of what Messi brings to the club. A real number, not the electoral voodoo of Laporta’s profitability when he said that Messi costs Barcelona 8% of his budget, but that it means 30% of revenues. And then you talk to him as an adult. You tell him you want him to stay, but if he hopes to earn something close to the more than $ 100 million he earns now, that won’t happen, because he would be irresponsible on the part of the club. It would mean that they would not pay their debts and would not be able to surround him with players with whom he could continue to win before retiring.
Don’t be ashamed to ask for a “resident discount”. However, you do not seem to be a person motivated primarily by money. It doesn’t even mean that you have to be like Pau Gasol and play for (practically) nothing. You simply have to show them that if they accept a substantial discount, with this money you will pay off debts or add / retain talent. Calculate a number and stick with it … and please agree.
If you do not agree? Well, you will have a large amount of money available in your salary and you will alleviate a ton of financial pressure.
If you agree? Well, you will have another season with one of the greatest footballers in history at a price that is probably much lower than it deserves.
Here are 10 reasons to feel optimistic. You can no doubt think of many others to panic. And yes, a lot depends on your faith in Laporta. He is not a businessman, he is basically a lawyer and a politician and, of course, he is not necessarily a good sign. But if you’re humble enough to surround yourself with smart people, if you don’t make the mistakes of the past, if you can get fans to believe in your project, you can do it.
Barça is not a club resistant to recession and not too big to fail. But the truth is that it is very close.