It is more than clear that the world’s economic gurus, causing immediate infections in the Dominican Republic, are looking for an artificial way out of a problem as complex and expensive as the pandemic unleashed by the new coronavirus.
To say that the Dominican economy will grow by 4.8% this year, as the World Bank has just stated in a global perspective study, is a barbaric prediction that could only be accounted for if supported by a thorough examination of the sectors. that will determine that growth.
But it turns out that the World Bank projection is that the recovery in growth for the Caribbean, at 4.5%, “would be driven by a partial recovery in tourism.”
Dreaming of a short- or medium-term tourism recovery, both in the Dominican Republic and in any other destination in the world, promises to end in a nightmare and all the means put to it go into a bottomless vessel.
How many Dominicans went on vacation in the United States and Europe each year? How many went to Paris, Madrid, Cairo, Istanbul, Miami, Las Vegas or Los Angeles in 2020?
Just as Dominicans don’t risk going to the world’s most coveted tourist destinations, nor are retirees or boyfriends who previously came to the country in their millions from Europe, Asia and North America.
More optimistic than World Bank technicians was central bank governor Héctor Valdez, who claimed at the virtual conference of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) Dec. 20 that the Dominican economic recovery could rise 6%. in 2021.
Apparently in the economic recovery projections there is an excess of optimism that serves to inspire confidence, but the investors of the real economy (not the mafia launderers and corruption) are not making decisions under the influence of a “compelling” story full of risks, but with an eye to reality.
How many Dominican businessmen today dare to seek funding of 200 million pesos to set up a factory – excluding medical supplies – and be part of the projected growth of between 4.8 and 6 percent for this year? Let’s see who tries and take advantage of the good bank rates!
The pandemic is not a game
The consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country and the world are simply devastating in terms of health, education, employment, income, production, sales, services and the mobility of people.
It has a direct impact on people’s quality of life and a hard blow to corporate productive assets and government resources to meet this challenge and the general advancement of public administration.
With 87.5 million infected around the world, about two million of whom have died, the health of all people is shaken by a veritable storm that has already changed the rhythm of everything else.
In the country alone, according to figures published by the Department of Health’s Directorate of Epidemiology, more than 177,000 infected have been registered to yesterday, of which more than 2,400 have died and ICU units are 58 percent occupied.
Of course, the numbers cannot reflect the reality of the level of contamination that the country is suffering because there is an under-registration of asymptomatic infected that cannot be lower than that number and it is the involuntary vectors that spread the virus in their family, social and social circles. labor.
Trying to hide the depth of the damage Covid-19 is doing in the country is pure nonsense and unnecessary as it is not the fault of this or the previous government, although it is their responsibility to implement the most accurate government policies to dominate . contamination and then shaking up the workforce to restore production, boost internal trade and exports, so that the path of growth can be resumed.
Order of priorities
You don’t have to be an expert economist or a consummate epidemiologist to know that the real priority here and now, not the one being told to the “public”, is to stop the infection, cure the infected, and then go into the country. to bring a position to recover. the economy, starting with mining, agriculture, service infrastructure and finally, when there are conditions in the world, attracting tourists again.
With more than a year of global experience under the devastation of Covid-19, it has been learned that stopping the contamination requires the harmonious combination of a responsible exercise of authority with the enthusiastic cooperation of the population.
If the authority does not provide evidence – I am relying on facts, not promises of words – that it is mobilizing sufficient resources to identify the infected early through clear efforts to ensure adequate diagnostic testing, clinical checks, effective treatment and follow-up. up of contacts, people will hardly take the threat they face seriously and take preventive measures to avoid contamination.
What the Dominican authorities are currently doing best is to treat infected people in public hospitals, but that is much more expensive than prevention and diagnostic tests that can determine where the active foci of the virus are.
The capital and the provinces of Santiago, Puerto Plata and La Altagracia – all very important tourist centers – are the most active sources of the coronavirus at the moment.
In them, massive and sectoral diagnostic tests must be carried out to know the extent of the contamination and take preventive health measures before the entire country is covered by an unstoppable cloud that the authorities and the health system will not be able to ward off.
Economic Effects
One of the worst blows after health has been the loss of jobs in tourism, small and medium-sized businesses and industry in general.
The government’s efforts to maintain social assistance programs for the most vulnerable population and workers suspended by companies have been critical so that there are no sectoral famines here. That explains why supermarkets and markets are always full, despite the stagnation of the economy in 2020.
But since the Dominican economy has such a harmonious diversification: manufacturing, mining, tourism, agro-exports, free zones, remittances, it can withstand the first attacks of the crisis triggered by the pandemic.
A correct line now would be – in terms of production – to spend much more resources on agriculture, intensify mining exploration, create a modern fishing fleet, manage agri-food export businesses to all of the Caribbean islands while promoting a program of massive housing construction in the entire country.
These types of measures generate demand for building materials, promote employment across the country, and boost industry and internal trade.
If this country thinks it can restore tourism in the next two years, it would need a wizard who, if there were, would rather go to the Grand Canyon in Colorado or Las Vegas.