Another weekend is coming. And there is another snowstorm in the forecast. Another nor’easter. It’s the season, I guess.
This coastal storm is different from the prolonged, severe winter storm that hit the state earlier this week. (A “Miller Type A” vs. the previous “Miller Type B” course.) As we have been tracking the development of this weekend’s storm since Monday, it didn’t become apparent on this coast until Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. -hugger system would bring winters back to New Jersey.
So at this point we have determined that the storm will have some impact. (It’s a “hit”.) And from this post, we’ve got a pretty good sense of timing. All that remains is to pin down accumulations and impacts.
I have been trying to capture snow totals. But this is the kind of storm where the precise track will have a huge impact on the totals. A “wobble” of 25 to 50 miles will make the difference between being buried here and getting caught.
Needless to say, these aren’t my favorite storms to forecast. But let’s try …
Timeline
This is the straightforward part. (I’ll never call a snow forecast “easy.”) Our first precipitation tire is coming early Sunday morning, spreading from south to north between about 2 a.m. and 6 a.m. (Initial precipitation type could be rain or mix, but that will soon turn into an almost all-snow event.) The storm will be solid in the Sunday morning hours, between approximately 8 a.m. and noon. The final flakes will diminish Sunday afternoon, between approximately 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM
I want to say something I’ve seen on social media. Some call this storm a certain one Great soccer game that also happens to be on Sunday. There is a certain appeal to the use of the name of that event, “snow” and “Sunday,” given the alliteration. However:
1.) The football league in this country has the trademark on that name and they are suing aggressively against illegal and improper use. While news organizations and non-commercial listings are generally safe, using such a name to specifically promote and promote your coverage is a gray area.
2.) The snow will have accumulated a few hours before kick-off. Especially the heavy stuff. So I find it a bit deceiving to connect the sporting event to the weather event if they are not happening at the same time. (In New Jersey, at least.)
Most likely scenario
For my first draft snow map, I chose wide areas of overlapping snow totals, focusing on what I consider reasonable, average estimates of total snowfall. The snow bullseye most likely appears to be landing over inland South Jersey, by over 8 “snow accumulation. It’s been a while since we got a Especially for South Jersey!
There are some models that paint up to a foot of snow above NJ. Namely, the NAM, which can be eerily good at identifying and predicting heavy snow tires. I’m not ready yet. Yet.
Likewise I believe zero snowfall is on the table here for northern New Jersey.
Another consideration here is the type of rainfall. The temperature profile of the atmosphere seems to indicate a snowy (rather than rainy or wet) event. But there are two exceptions:
1.) Temperatures may not be cold enough on Sunday morning for all the snow. You may encounter rain or winter mix for a few hours, before heading to all the snow. I don’t think this would have a significant impact on the snow totals.
2.) The coast will be affected by a (relatively warmer) sea breeze during part of the storm. That might keep the few miles along the coast just warm enough for rain / mix, rather than snow. This can result in a significantly low build-up of snow along and east of the Garden State Parkway.
When the Storm wobbles
I have never tried this before due to technological and logistical issues. But look what happens when I manually “wiggle” my snow forecast about 50 miles in each direction.
The drawing is a bit coarse. And the numbers are even rougher, just estimates. But hopefully that will give you an idea of how our snow forecast may shift in the future, as the storm track drifts closer to (northwest) or away from (southeast) New Jersey.
Winter Storm Watch
Since it is likely that we will have significant snowfall within 48 hours, the National Weather Service has one Winter Storm Watch for most of the state:
—Sunday midnight to 4:00 pm … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset
—Sunday, 4am to 6pm … eastern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, eastern Passaic and Union
For the record, I think it was smart and necessary for NWS to issue such a blanket watch at this stage in the game, given the assault course’s uncertainty and potential accumulations. I don’t agree 100% with the geography or the timing of their prediction here. But I expect that when warnings and advisories are issued on Saturdays, they will be much more targeted and specific.
Other consequences
There may be a short period of 30+ mph gusts of wind. Not awful.
But because this storm is passing quickly, it is not expected that much ocean water will be pushed to the Jersey Shore. I’m encouraged by storm surge estimates of less than a foot. Tide guidance suggests a round of rough surf and minor coastal flooding behind the storm Monday morning, but that’s it.
It gets cold and windy behind the storm as the arctic air returns to the Garden State. Not quite “dangerously” cold, but certainly windy and unreasonable. Monday morning’s low temperatures are likely to subside into the teens, with wind chills possibly in the single digits.
A few reminders
I consider anything over 6 inches to be a “big” snow event. Traveling will be difficult and dangerous, traffic will be choked and teams will have to hit the road. So this is where we focus on the expected going forecast – who is most likely to see “big” snow, and who will end up in the “minor” or “moderate” category.
It is also important to remember how much snow is left on the ground in North Jersey. We’ve been melting some good snow for the past three days. But there is not much room for plows to lay more snow. If Sunday’s nor’easter swings north toward the snow-sure fix, more serious and long-lasting consequences are possible for that fact alone.
In conclusion, below is an exceptionally difficult and sensitive prediction. Because of the nature of this “Miller Type A” nor’easter and the sudden shift in the track, the “wiggle factor” is more important here than ever. This prediction will change and evolve between now and the start of the storm. New data, new information and new analysis will always result in a new view. That’s exactly how weather forecasting works.
What’s next?
We use the prediction model from both Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon to zero on the precise storm track, moisture content and temperature profile. I will probably publish a new weather blog around noon on Saturday, with a more refined and confident snowfall forecast.
Until then, enjoy your Friday evening and a nice weekend.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media New Jersey. follow him Facebook or Twitter for the latest weather forecast and real-time weather updates.