Two events this week should end the chaos that ravaged the United States following the November 3 presidential and parliamentary elections.
The first is next Tuesday, when the state of Georgia goes to the polls to determine the names of the two senators who are still missing to complete the Senate. and upon whose outcome the control of Congress depends.
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The second is the next day, at a joint session of the legislature to confirm the vote of the December 14 electoral college, which already declared Democrat Joe Biden’s clear victory in that same election.
Under normal circumstances, both moments would amount to an almost formal exercise of the US electoral system. But in the present, where polarization is more than extreme, they are seen as a litmus test for democracy in this country. In Georgia, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
With the White House and House of Representatives already ruled in favor of the Democrats, Republicans have raised this election as a matter of life and death. If they lose both seats, their rivals will get 50 seats in the Senate and that would give them the majority, as the deciding vote in a tie is cast by the country’s vice president. In this case Kamala Harris.
In practice, that would give them the power to carry out Biden’s agenda unopposed from day one of his reign. In other words, approve the nominees without delay, give the green light for a new aid package to tackle the coronavirus, and block any investigation the Republicans want to launch to ensnare their government.
But when they win, the opposite happens.
The candidates for the seats are the current Republican senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue vs. Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
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If the Democrats win in Georgia, they would ensure control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
In the November elections, none of the candidates got 50 percent of the vote, something Georgian law requires to avoid a second round.
In theory, the Republicans have the upper hand as Georgia is a southern state that favors candidates from this party.
But if one thing became clear during the presidential election, it is that the distance between political factions in the US is no longer as it was before. At least in this state.
In fact, it was Biden who won the state, although only by about 10,000 votes.
Polls (not very reliable these days) speak of a virtual tie in both races and experts believe that both seats will be determined by a handful of votes.
But in the current environment, where Trump has been in charge of sowing disagreement by claiming that there is fraud that he has never been able to prove (and that both the courts and the electoral authorities have rejected for lack of evidence), such an outcome would be explosive. Regardless of the result.
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If the Republicans lose again, they will most likely resume the path of demands and protests, pushed by a base that ended up suspicious of the electoral process, despite the fact that members of the same party are the ones holding positions of power in the state. and confirmed Biden’s triumph.
If the defeated are the Democrats, the effect would be reversed. In part because, despite losing the election in Georgia, Trump tried to pressure political authorities to annul legitimate votes and give him victory to the brave.
In fact, it is taken for granted that if the election is close, there will be new requests for recounts and demands before the courts that could leave Congressional scrutiny in limbo for several more weeks.
The joint session of the legislature, scheduled for next Wednesday, is taking place in the middle of that strand.
According to a law from the end of the last century (1887), the new Congress must convene on January 6 (probably still unknown what Georgia’s results are) to count the votes of the electoral college, where Biden triumphed with 306 votes against. to Trump’s 232.
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In principle, the role of Congress is only one form. That is, you must verify that the electoral college votes you received are the same as those of the state. This is because there was a fear at the time that votes could be falsified on the way to Congress.
But the law of 1887 also envisages a provision that has hardly ever been used, but which today gives rise to fierce controversy.
Under that provision, any congressman in any state may object to the electoral college result if he believes there have been irregularities.
Donald Trump is fighting an intense pulse within his own Republican party.
For that to happen, a senator and a house representative must agree with that objection. If this scenario occurs, the joint session will be dissolved and both houses will meet separately to consider the complaint for up to two hours and then put it to the vote.
In order to raise the complaint, it is necessary for both chambers to approve it. But from that point on, the process gets confusing.
In theory, the votes for that state’s electoral college would linger in the air and be subtracted from the candidate who won them.
And if that prevents the winner of the election from adding up the votes needed to secure a majority in the electoral college, then Congress would be in charge of the election of the president.
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But not before the judge intervenes, because it is a scenario that has never been presented and where many constitutional doubts remain.
At least, that’s Trump’s desperate attempt to stay in power despite his defeat being overwhelming and confirmed by both the electoral authorities and the courts.
But their efforts have no chance of success. That’s because Democrats control the House of Representatives and will cover any disputes that arise (the two houses must match).
In fact, the question many are asking is how many Republicans – especially in the Senate – will join the complaint, as many, including President Mitch McConnell, acknowledged Biden’s triumph.
McConnell also advised that his party members should not endorse an initiative seen more as a test of loyalty to Trump that will leave them divided. In fact, it’s very likely that the Republicans won’t even add the necessary votes to approve a complaint about it in the Senate, where they are in the majority.
But as Edward Foley, a professor of history at Yale University, says, this is a very dangerous exercise for American democracy.
Trump and his supporters want to turn this session into a circus to ‘reissue’ their allegations of fraud. But that is not the role the Constitution has given Congress and it is setting a precedent that could destroy our electoral system. “ dice Foley.
Under this assumption, the analyst confirms, a party controlling both chambers could ignore the popular vote and “put” the president at will, claiming powers that do not belong to him.
The same New York Post, a conservative outlet that has always been characterized by its “Trumpism,” published a front-page editorial with a big headline asking the president to “stop this madness”.
Mr. President, says the newspaper, “What you are promoting (before this January 6) is an undemocratic coup d’état”
.
Even worse, Trump promoted a massive same-day march in Washington, selling the idea to his followers that they could “appearance” that conference “Verify” Biden’s win.
Something that could unleash violence in the city and give the president the pretext for invoking the “martial law” that some of his most radical supporters talk about so often and see as the only viable way to end the election. to steal.
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Nobody believes such a thing is going to happen. Most likely, Congress will meet as scheduled and, after a long session – which can last until the next day – will eventually confirm what everyone, including the Republicans themselves, knows: that Biden won the election two months ago and will take office on January 20 as the new president of the United States.
But the simple fact that the idea is there says clearly about the delicate moment that this country is living.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
Nl twitter @ sergom68