There are growing signs that parts of the country may be close to meeting the demand for coronavirus vaccine – long before the US achieves herd immunity.
Why does it matter: In recent months, the main focus of the US has been to get photos to everyone who wants them, as soon as possible. Soon, this concentration will suddenly change to convincing resistance to vaccination.
Game status: Southern red states administer the smallest dose of vaccine they receive from the federal government – a sign of low demand, slow public health systems, or both.
- The most reluctant Americans in the vaccine are white Republicans, the poll found.
By numbers: On average, states administered 76% of the doses they received from the federal government. New Hampshire administered the largest share of all states, at 89.8%, while Alabama administered the lowest – only 61.4% of its doses.
News management: An analysis published yesterday by Surgo Ventures concluded that “the change in supply and demand for the vaccine will take place sooner than expected – since the end of April – and before the nation reaches the threshold of 70-90% to obtain immunity from the herd. “
- He published a survey finding that 59% of adults in the US say they are either already vaccinated or intend to be as soon as the shot is made available to them. At the current US vaccination rate, all those vaccine enthusiasts could be inoculated by the end of April.
- Vaccination rates will then slow, and Surgo projections show that only about 52% of Americans will be vaccinated by July. When combined with people who have already been infected, the overall immunity rate can be about 65% by then – still not high enough for herd immunity.
What are they saying: “This analysis shows that, despite the general enthusiasm for the vaccine we see now in the United States, things will soon become very difficult,” said Sema Sgaier, CEO of Surgo.
- “Without significant investments in addressing people’s barriers and making vaccines available to those under the age of 18, achieving effective immunity, will be a real challenge. ”
A separate survey of rural Americans, released by the KFF this morning, found that although they are more likely to be vaccinated than urban and suburban Americans, there are fewer rural residents who are willing to shoot.
- 39% have already received at least one dose of vaccine, 16% say they will receive it as soon as possible, and 15% say they want to “wait and see”.
- Another 9% said they would be vaccinated only if necessary, and 21% said they certainly would not. In suburban areas, a combined percentage of 21% said they were vaccine resistant and only a combined percentage of 16% of urban dwellers said the same.
- Among rural residents who said they would certainly not be vaccinated, nearly three-quarters were Republicans or Republicans, and 41 percent were white evangelical Christians.
Bottom line: Rural states, heavy Republicans, are probably blowing through their vaccine-hungry populations.