New restrictions at international border crossings, combined with hesitant COVID-19 immunization efforts, have shattered hopes for a significant return to air travel in 2021.
Why does it matter: For global aviation, which suffered its worst year in history in 2020, the misery is likely to continue, preventing a wider economic recovery.
- Forecasts that air travel will recover to 50% of pre-pandemic levels in 2021 now appear to be a stretch, industry officials warn.
- “There is a recovery, but it is a much smaller recovery,” Brian Pearce, chief economist at the International Air Transport Association, told reporters this week.
- “What we have seen in recent weeks is that governments are taking a much tougher and more cautious approach.”
- Its worst case scenario: air travel in 2021 is only 38% of 2019 levels.
The whole picture: The world is more blocked today than at any time in the last 12 months.
- The new potentially more contagious strains of coronavirus have triggered renewed cross-border travel limits and a dizzying range of quarantine restrictions.
- While the arrival of new vaccines is good news for air travel, the slow launch means that the herd’s immunity is still far away.
An ominous sign: Bookings for future travel slowed significantly in January, IATA reported.
- “Things will get a lot harder before they get better,” warns aviation consultant Shashank Nigam, CEO of Simpliflying.
- Even countries that vaccinate quickly will keep their borders closed for a while, he predicts.
- Israel, for example, leads the world with 20% of its population fully vaccinated, but last week imposed a ban on international travel to combat the growing cases of a rapidly spreading variant in the UK.
- And regional travel bubbles like those between Hong Kong and Singapore or Australia and New Zealand did not last.
Context: The comeback that began last summer stopped in the fourth quarter as coronavirus cases grew worldwide.
- Air travel fell by 70% in October, November and December from a year ago.
- For the whole of 2020, passenger demand fell by 66%. International passenger demand fell by 75%; domestic demand by almost half.
- Americans who flew in search of sun and beaches: trips to places like Mexico and the US Virgin Islands fell the least in December, according to Airlines for America.
- A bright spot: air freight fell by just 10% last year, helping keep many airlines on the airline.
What are they saying: “Last year was a catastrophe. There is no other way to describe it,” IATA chief executive and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said in a statement.
- “I don’t think anyone predicts a COVID-19-free world any time soon. Certainly not in the coming months or even this year. But our ability to manage risk increases as more people are vaccinated and testing capacity expands. . ”
Airlines say that large-scale testing, not border restrictions, will allow international air travel to resume safely.
- Nigam is launching a service called Fit2Fly.travel that connects airlines and testing labs so passengers can schedule a COVID-19 test as part of the booking process.
- New smartphone applications such as CommonPass and IATA Travel Pass could help validate passenger health so that governments can safely reopen borders.
Yes but: When it comes to domestic flights, US airlines are asking the Biden administration not to require tests before departure, saying it would limit access to travel for low-income and rural communities.
What to look for: For airlines, the outlook for next year or two is uncertain and will depend on how effectively vaccines and testing can remove the spread of new variants.
Bottom line: Aviation is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 or 2024.