After the death of the president who denied Covid, Tanzania can pivot pandemic policy

Crowds gathered on Thursday at Mr. Magufuli’s official residence, wearing party wreaths and flags and singing religious songs on the first of the 14 official days of mourning. The Tanzanian government has not made a statement since Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan announced late on state television on Wednesday that Mr. Magufuli had died of a heart condition that had plagued him for a decade.

Opposition leaders and diplomats in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s largest city, have said for days that Magufuli, 61, disappeared from public view 12 days ago after contracting the coronavirus after his sudden death. five members of his cabinet.

Mrs Hassan, now President-elect, will be the first President of Tanzania.

Confirmation of Mr. Magufuli’s death extends the paradox of the coronavirus pandemic to Africa, a continent that has fewer cases compared to other parts of the world, but in which several prominent leaders died unexpectedly due to coronavirus-like symptoms.

The 54 African nations, with a population of about 1.3 billion, reported only four million cases and about 100,000 deaths, well behind the US number of 29.6 million cases and 538,000 deaths in a population. of about 328 million. But the continent has lost more senior leaders due to coronavirus complications than anywhere else in the world.

In neighboring Burundi, longtime leader Pierre Nkurunziza died unexpectedly with coronavirus-like symptoms last year while his wife was flown to a hospital in Nairobi to be treated for coronavirus. The vice president of the semi-autonomous archipelago of Tanzania, Zanzibar, Seif Sharif Hamad, died last month a few days after his party announced that it had tested positive for the virus. Uganda’s deputy prime minister and Eswatini’s prime minister also died of the virus last year.

Despite the increase in the number of profile cases, Mr. Magufuli’s death comes at a time when his mark of covid skepticism is flourishing in the poorest states in the region.

Burundi’s health minister said last month that his country did not need Covid-19 vaccines because most patients were cured. Eritrea and Madagascar have also refused vaccines, with Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina promoting a locally produced herbal remedy.

Vaccine skepticism is exacerbating Africa’s supply gap by less than one dose per 100 people by the end of February, compared to 31 doses per 100 people in the UK and 22 per 100 in the US, according to data compiled by the University of Oxford.

Tanzanian diplomats and political analysts say the key question for the gold-producing nation is whether ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi can handle a smooth transition to Ms Hassan.

Populist Mr. Magufuli, known as the “Bulldozer” for his foolish approach to corruption and poverty reduction, centralized power around his personal authority. He comfortably won the October election, with Ms Hassan playing a minor role as his partner.

“We do not expect Mrs. Suhulu [Hassan] to immediately reverse the government’s response and impose strict restrictions on Covid-19, but it is likely to do so gradually in the coming months, said Zaynab Mohamed, a Tanzanian analyst at NKC African Economics. “If it makes drastic changes quickly, it could negatively affect it.”

The ruling party has said it will not contest Ms Hassan’s removal as president in the coming days, but opposition leaders have called for her immediate removal, warning that the constitution does not provide for a continued power vacuum.

In recent weeks, Mr Magufuli has been late in instituting public health measures to contain the disease, including wearing masks, following a wave of high-profile deaths. But the country has continued to refuse to share the number of coronavirus cases with the World Health Organization, which it stopped providing almost a year ago.

Despite his position as a coronavirus and a growing reduction in the rights and freedoms that have made him an international pariah, Mr. Magufuli has remained popular at home, especially in rural communities that have benefited from one of the highest growth rates. from Africa in recent years. In Dar es Salaam, the commercial capital of Tanzania, dozens of residents gathered in cafes and restaurants and on street corners to watch news of his death. Some cried while looking at the news bulletins.

Some analysts have said that Ms Hassan, who has a smaller political constituency, may find it more difficult to continue Mr Magufuli’s confrontational stance against international mining companies.

“Investors will be watching closely for signs of Magufuli’s replacement, either sticking to or diverging from the former president’s nationalist path,” said Ed Hobey-Hamsher, an analyst at risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft.

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executive director Mark Bristow, who confronted Mr. Magufuli, years after a tax exemption in 2017, which paid the company $ 300 million, expressed his condolences to the Tanzanian people, describing the late leader as “a visionary statesman. ”

Mr. Magufuli’s anti-pandemic approach has particularly annoyed Washington, Tanzania’s largest health and safety donor, which has invested about $ 4.9 billion in its health sector over the past two decades.

Tanzanian authorities shut down a television station last summer to report a statement from the US Embassy warning of an increase in coronavirus cases across the country. Weeks later, Mr. Magufuli accused the embassy of exaggerating the health crisis and warned citizens against accepting US donations of items such as masks and other medical supplies.

While Mr. Magufuli insisted that his country did not have a coronavirus, the United States opposed him several times, tightening ties. A few days before the death of Zanzibar’s vice president, the US Embassy warned again of a significant increase in coronavirus cases in Tanzania. Days later, Mr. Magufuli’s chief secretary died unexpectedly, causing panic in government circles.

On Thursday, the US State Department expressed its condolences after Mr Magufuli’s death and pledged to support Tanzania in fighting the pandemic.

Write to Nicholas Bariyo at [email protected]