The Trump administration has declassified a report outlining its Indo-Pacific strategy, including “accelerating India’s rise,” blocking China from establishing “liberal spheres of influence” and maintaining “American strategic primacy” in the region, according to a copy viewed by Axios.
Why does it matter: The strategy presented in the ten-page report, written in early 2018, has guided the US approach to China, India, North Korea and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region over the past three years. Its launch sheds light on the geopolitical and security challenges that will soon be inherited by the Biden administration.
China is the main concern of the state described in the document, followed by North Korea. The strategy focuses on combating China’s growing influence abroad, seeking strategic alignment with allies and partners, supporting a “liberal economic order” in the region, and working to “inoculate” the United States and its partners against China’s intelligence activities.
- The strategy also highlights a major expansion of military, intelligence and diplomatic support to India as the first regional counterweight to China – an approach that could raise eyebrows in Beijing and Islamabad.
What are they saying: “The declassification of today’s framework transparently demonstrates America’s strategic commitments to the Indo-Pacific and to our allies and partners in the region,” National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien wrote in a note dated January 5, 2021. included with the strategy document.
Decomposition: The Trump administration has closely met several of China’s stated goals over the past three years, including:
- Building an “international consensus that China’s unfair industrial policies and trade practices affect the global trading system”
- Expanding US counterintelligence and law enforcement to counter China’s intelligence activities in the United States and expanding the exchange of information with allies to help them do the same.
- Develop military and asymmetric warfare strategies to assist Taiwan in its long-standing relationship with China.
- Strengthen national security analysis of Chinese investment in sensitive US sectors
- Collaborate with allies and partners to try to “prevent China’s acquisition of military and strategic capabilities.”
Yes but: Some targets faced headwinds.
- The strategy repeatedly calls for greater US engagement with countries in the region, in particular the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In some cases, the United States has withdrawn from the region, including by withdrawing Trump from the trans-Pacific partnership and clogging ASEAN summits.
- The goal of presenting the benefits of American democratic values as a counterbalance to China in the region has also suffered a major blow with the recent armed insurrection in the US Chapter. These events led to the resignation of one of the main authors of the strategy, former National Security Deputy Matt Pottinger.
Note: India forms an important cornerstone of the appropriately named Indo-Pacific strategy.
- The document states that increased US assistance and exchange of information should help India in key areas of conflict with China, including border disputes and water rights in the Himalayas. In 2020, India and China had the deadliest military battle along the 1967 border.
- But the US-India relationship is complex. During the Cold War, India refused to place itself directly in the Western camp, opting instead to lead the non-aligned movement. Meanwhile, the United States often leans toward Pakistan, India’s historical rival in South Asia.
Background: The Trump administration has introduced a new official framework to see China and India as part of the same strategic region, the “Indo-Pacific,” beginning with its 2017 National Security Strategy.
- The US Pacific Command was renamed the Indo-Pacific Command in 2018, in a move widely seen as a response to China’s rise.
Between the lines: Australia’s experience with China has strongly influenced the development of the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2018.
- “In many ways, they have been ahead of the curve in understanding influence operations and interference in domestic systems,” a senior US official told me. “They were pioneers and we need to give a lot of credit to Australia.”
- The official selected former Australian intelligence adviser John Garnaut for praise and said a 2017 report on Chinese-influenced operations by New Zealand scholar Anne-Marie Brady also influenced US strategy.
Go deeper: The State Department launches plan to fight China.