The US could approach a “vaccine wall”, as a new poll indicates that the demand for COVID-19 immunization could evaporate by the last week of April, long before the country achieves immunity from the herd.
By Friday, 44% of American adults had received at least one dose of vaccine, and a survey published this week found that only 59% of adults were interested in being vaccinated immediately.
Another 15 percent said they want to wait either three months or a year for the shooting – leaving more than a third of the population with no interest in being vaccinated, according to Surgo Ventures.
Health officials have suggested that the country needs to achieve a vaccination rate of 70 to 90% to get immunity from coronavirus, the point where a virus no longer circulates freely because it cannot find susceptible hosts.
Only 59% of Americans say they are interested in being vaccinated immediately, suggesting the country could hit a “vaccine wall” immediately after this month.
Experts have long warned that the launch of the vaccine will face challenges after the initial distribution to those most enthusiastic to receive it.
Last fall, in a record year, only about 100 million Americans, or a third of the population, were vaccinated against the flu. To vaccinate at least 70 percent of the entire American population of 328 million against COVID-19, about 90 percent of US adults should be vaccinated.
Since the first COVID vaccine became available in December, demand has far exceeded supply, and the main challenge for health officials has been to obtain and distribute sufficient doses to those who wanted them.
This dynamic is now about to change dramatically, according to new data. In a few days or weeks, almost every American who is enthusiastic about the vaccine will receive at least one dose.
At that time, the available supply of vaccine doses will quickly start to exceed demand, according to Surgo forecasts.
“This analysis shows that despite the general enthusiasm for the vaccine we see now in the United States, things will become very difficult very soon,” said Dr. Sema K. Sgaier, co-gounder and CEO of Surgo Ventures and assistant professor. deputy at the Har Chan School of Public Health at Harvard.
People line up for hours at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination spot in the Bravo Supermarket parking lot in a predominantly black, Hispanic neighborhood of Orlando
Nonprofit projects that, in early July, will have enough doses available for 100% of the adult population, but that only 52% of adults will have volunteered to get the shot.
The forecast shows a progressive absorption leak that continues until April 2022, as those who want to wait before being slowly vaccinated become volunteers. But even by next April, projections show that only 58% of Americans will have been vaccinated.
Separate polls have shown that white Republicans and African Americans are among the most likely demographic groups to reject the vaccine.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the deep south, where both groups are abundant, lags far behind much of the country in vaccine implementation.
While New Hampshire leads the nation with 92% of its available doses of distributed vaccine, Mississippi used only 65% of the doses, while Alabama accounts for 62%. The national average is 77%.
However, there are signs that vaccine resistance is slowly eroding, some who were initially skeptical were now warming up to the idea of gaining immunity.
In a survey in December and January, Surgo found that 43 percent of adults were cautious but “convinced” about the vaccine, while another 17 percent were “conspiracy believers” who vowed not to. never get shot.
By March, half of the “convinced” camp had become passionate about vaccines, while the “conspiracy” camp remained at 16%.
In order to reach a vaccination rate of 70% of the population, 90% of adults will have to receive the vaccine, which means that at least part of the “conspiracy” camp will have to be conquered.
There are signs that vaccine resistance is slowly eroding, some who were initially skeptical are now warming up to the idea of gaining immunity.
“Make no mistake, this segment of the population will be much harder to convince – after all, there is a reason why I did not consider them” Persuasive “for a start. But we can’t get over math, ‘said Sgaier.
Surgo suggests that convincing the “conspiracy” camp might require “recruiting trusted figures to communicate the relative risks of vaccination versus the benefits.”
According to some estimates, about a quarter of all Americans already have COVID and may have some level of natural immunity, which would reduce the vaccination rate needed to reach herd immunity.
However, Surgo predicts that if those who had COVID were vaccinated at the same rate as the general population, the US would remain without herd immunity until July.