Russia has organized last-minute military exercises near commercial shipping lanes in the Black Sea, which threatens to stifle Ukraine’s economy, according to an internal document of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense revised by Axios.
Why does it matter: With the eyes of the world on the massive accumulation of troops in eastern Ukraine, the disclosed note shows the Russian forces escalating their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border.
Zoom in: On Friday, Russia announced plans to block foreign ships in parts of the Black Sea for military exercises by October, an escalation that a State Department spokesman condemned as an example of Moscow’s “ongoing campaign.” for undermining and destabilizing Ukraine ”.
- Just days earlier, the Pentagon had canceled plans to send two American warships to the Black Sea, according to Reuters. An explanation was not provided.
- The leaked Ukrainian document estimates that the total area of Russian military exercises occupies 27% of the Black Sea, a proportion that has steadily increased as a result of efforts to establish de facto control over international waters.
- The Russians are also using civilian infrastructure for military purposes, according to Ukraine. The document says that Russia installed radars on the natural gas platforms that it confiscated from Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Between the lines: Civilian radar systems could allow the Russian military to establish awareness and presence in areas where it should not be.
- Earlier this month, Russian state media accused Poland of “provocative” activities near the controversial and nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea.
- An American official who is closely following these developments said that “arming the energy infrastructure in the Black Sea should be a warning sign of what is to come” if Nord Stream 2, which would bypass Ukraine and deliver Russian gas directly to Europe, will took place in the Baltic Sea.
- While Biden said he opposes Nord Stream 2, it is unlikely to sanction European allies, such as Germany, to stop its latest construction.
The whole picture: Much of the concern over Russia’s aggression in recent weeks has been directed not at its activities in the Black Sea, but at its border with eastern Ukraine, where the EU’s top diplomat says more than 150,000 soldiers have now gathered. .
- The disclosed document shows that Russian forces are stepping up their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border with units that boast a wide range of capabilities, including many that suggest more sinister intentions than a simple show of force.
- The document suggests that Russia’s actions could be designed to divert attention from internal affairs ahead of the September legislative elections or to thwart NATO exercises and intimidate Ukraine into reversing its “positive political developments”.
- But it also finds a “high probability” that Russia will try to provoke Ukrainian forces to create a pretext for a military incursion, as it did in Georgia in 2008.