JERUSALEM (PA) – After a difficult election, an Arab Islamist could choose the next prime minister of Israel.
You read that correctly.
Tuesday’s election left a narrow margin between a right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a diverse series of parties wanted to oust him.
To prevail, each party may need the support of an Arab Islamist party that appears to have held only five seats in the 120-member Knesset but is never committed, according to near-final results.
This means that the United Arab List, known as the Hebrew Ra’am, could decide whether Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, will remain in office.
It is a strange situation for Netanyahu, who came to power rejecting compromise with the Palestinians and used racist rhetoric in previous campaigns to make the country’s Arab minority a fifth column of terrorist sympathizers.
This time, however, in Israel’s fourth election in two years, Netanyahu sought Arab support in what many saw as a two-way strategy. sought to gather votes and share the Common List, an alliance of Arab parties that won a record 15 seats in last year’s election.
If so, he succeeded in convincing Mansour Abbas, the leader of the United Arab List, to lead a separate list.. Now Abbas seems to hold the keys to the kingdom.
Israelis vote for party lists rather than individual candidates, and seats are allocated based on the percentage of votes received. No party has ever won a 61-seat majority, so larger parties have to rally government coalitions – often with independent parties.
With about 88% of the vote counted, Netanyahu and his natural allies, as well as the opposition bloc, each lack a 61-seat majority in the Knesset.
Unless another party decides to change sides, everyone would need Abbas’s support to form a government and avoid another round of elections.
Unlike other Arab leaders, Abbas has not ruled out working with Likud or other right-wing parties if he can make a profit for the Arab community, which faces widespread discrimination, increasing poverty amid the coronavirus and a wave of pandemics. violent crime.
Arab parties have never asked for or been invited to serve in an Israeli government. Abbas could break with this tradition, potentially requesting a cabinet post in exchange for his support. More likely, he will not hold an official position, but will instead support the non-government coalition in exchange for greater public investment in housing, infrastructure and law enforcement in Arab communities.
In an interview with Radio Armatei on Wednesday, Abbas reiterated that he does not rule out joining both sides and alluded to bolder ambitions. “We want to use not only parliamentary tools, but Cabinet tools to do things for the benefit of Arab society,” he said.
It can be difficult to solve. Netanyahu’s coalition should also include the Religious Zionist Party, whose main candidates are openly racist. The differences between Abbas and the far-right group would be difficult to eliminate.
In a TV interview on Wednesday, Abbas said that religious Zionists “are not the address” for resolving the political conflict.
There is also a chance that Naftali Bennett, a right-wing leader who will also remain uncommitted, will show his support behind the anti-Netanyahu bloc. In this case, the UAL could be abandoned if it maintained the support of the larger common Arab list. Netanyahu could also form a coalition without the UAL if he persuades members of the other bloc to give up.
Abbas comes from the Islamic Movement, which was founded in 1971 along the lines of the pan-Arab group of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its main objective is the Islamization of Arab society, which it pursues through religious expansion and a vast charity network.
The group split into two branches in 1996 over whether to participate in politics.
The most radical northern branch, led by fire cleric Raed Salah, rejects participation in Israeli politics and has been accused of having close ties to Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that has also emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood. Salah has been arrested several times and is currently in prison after being convicted of inciting terrorism. Israel outlawed its group in 2015, accusing it of inciting violence.
The southern branch, to which Abbas belongs, has taken a conciliatory stance on Israel and focuses more on socio-economic issues than on the conflict with the Palestinians. He allied with secular and left-wing Arab parties in the last election, but broke with them on issues related to his religious conservatism, such as support for LGBTQ rights.
Arabs make up about 20% of Israel’s 9.3 million population. They have citizenship, speak fluent Hebrew and are well represented in the medical profession and at universities.
But it faces widespread discrimination in housing and public services. In recent years, they have staged regular protests to condemn violent crimes and accuse the Israeli authorities of not doing enough to protect their communities., accusations rejected by the police.
Israel’s Arab citizens have close family ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and largely identify with the Palestinian cause. This has led many Israeli Jews to look at them with suspicion, which Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have used in previous elections.
Ahead of the 2015 polls, Netanyahu criticized after warning his supporters that Arabs were voting “en masse.” In 2019, he lobbied for the placement of observers and chambers at polling stations in Arab areas, which critics said was an attempt to intimidate voters.
It remains to be seen whether these observations will come back to haunt him.
Another victory would extend his 12 years in power – already the longest in Israeli history. Defeat would probably mean the end of his political career and would leave him increasingly vulnerable to prosecution and imprisonment as his corruption allegations unfold. Or the country could plunge into another election campaign, extending two years of stalemate.
Abbas could decide which way to go.