An announcement Monday night that US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan will return to Washington for consultations, despite reports that Sullivan initially resisted Russian suggestions to leave Moscow, also revealed the concerns of the Biden administration with regarding the growing tensions. The administration is still in talks with the Kremlin to hold a summit this summer sometime between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Biden said in remarks about Russia last week.
But Ukrainian officials now fear Russia’s build-up of forces, which has been unusually public and extracted, is more than just a sword blow to send a message to the West – and they have repeatedly called on the US, both publicly, as well as privately, several weapons. to avoid an increasingly plausible Russian incursion.
Among their requests: Patriot missiles, which are deployed in Poland, but Ukrainian officials want on their ground, according to a person informed about the requests and recent comments made by senior Ukrainian official Andriy Yermak. “Ukraine maintains its line against Russia, not just for us, but for the West,” he told TIME magazine last week. “And where does the US deploy its Patriot missiles?” The nearest are in Poland. It should be here. ”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba told reporters on Tuesday that the situation was escalating, and Moscow would be “ready” to begin a “new stage of aggression” in a few weeks.
“We see the strategic preparations of the Russian Federation, the military preparations and it is now in the hands of Ukraine and all those who support respect for international law and sovereignty in Europe to demotivate Putin from taking further aggressive steps,” he said.
If Russia tries to invade, the US could quickly send Ukraine a few extra weapons to bolster its defenses, officials said. Options include several transports of Javelin anti-tank missiles, ammunition and bombs. However, plans to do so have not been finalized. This year, Biden approved an additional lethal aid worth $ 125 million to help the country defend its borders, including two armed patrol boats and anti-artillery radar.
The Wall Street Journal first reported that the Biden administration is weighing in on sending additional weapons to Ukraine.
Asked for comment, a NATO spokesman underlined Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s calls last week for Russia to “immediately disqualify, stop the model of aggressive challenges and honor its international commitments.”
In recent weeks, US officials have viewed the buildup more as a posture than as a sign of an impending invasion, and events in recent days have not changed their general concerns, according to US officials briefed on the situation. Russia has clearly demonstrated military capability and is trying to send a signal to the West, but its ultimate goals are still unclear, they said.
Experts and former senior officials, however, express concern about an imminent invasion.
“What we see now is the beginning of the next phase and I would say that it is imminent, not possible, but imminent, that there will be an escalation in the use of kinetic force,” said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army Forces Europe. He has seen a growing alarm in recent days over the large number of personnel and logistical support sent to the border, as well as naval accumulation.
Hodges criticized Biden’s response to the crisis, as well as that of allies France and the United Kingdom, as “weak”, saying he had to do more than issue stern warnings.
Putin “does not spend a billion rubles just to test” the new Biden administration, Hodges said. “He will put pressure on how much priority Ukrainian sovereignty really is for the president of the United States.”
A comprehensive assessment of the military situation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and obtained by POLITICO stated that Russia is making “plausible preparations for conducting offensive military operations to ensure the water supply” of the Crimean peninsula, which Russia has illegally annexed. of Ukraine in 2014.
He also assessed that there is a “high probability of a similar Georgia challenge against the Eastern Ukrainian Joint Forces”, which aims to capture several territories in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. And he predicted that Russia would deploy the troops and assets needed to counterbalance the massive NATO-led military exercise in the so-called “Defender Europe” region.
Kuleba met last week with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where they discussed the deteriorating security situation in eastern Ukraine, along the border and in Crimea. During their private meeting, Kuleba asked Blinken about the state of Ukraine’s demand for more military assistance, according to a person informed of the meeting, and stressed the possibility of Ukraine being designated a non-NATO Major Ally if Kyiv’s efforts NATO membership fails.
The major non-NATO allies enjoy a strategic working relationship with the US military and certain defense privileges, and the status “demonstrates our deep respect for friendship for the countries in which it is extended,” according to the State Department. Although such a status would be much less preferable for Ukraine than NATO membership, which Kiev has wanted for years, it would at least send a strong signal to Moscow about Washington’s support for Ukraine, the informant said. on internal deliberations.
Meanwhile, US military officials are increasingly concerned about Russia’s accumulation both on the land border with Ukraine and in the region’s waters. Several Russian warships have been moved from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea, signaling Moscow’s intention to “strengthen military capacity in the Sea of Azov,” which lies between Ukraine, Russia and Crimea, Kuleba said on Tuesday. He added that moving ships “is not a common practice for the Russian Federation” and suggests that the movements are not just typical military exercises, as Moscow has argued.
The Pentagon is also skeptical of the Russians’ explanation that the build-up is part of a military exercise, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said this week.
“It’s not entirely clear to us that this is exactly the goal,” Kirby said. “We remain very concerned about this accumulation and call on Russia to be more transparent about their intentions.” Kirby said the number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is now higher than in 2014.
Spokesmen for the Pentagon and the US European Command declined to comment beyond Kirby’s remarks. The National Security Council sent comments to the Pentagon and the State Department.
The accumulation of Russian troops near Ukraine is just one of the problems escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow. The Biden administration has recently imposed a series of sanctions on Russian officials in connection with the allegations, from Russian interventions in the 2020 US elections to suspected Russian cyber espionage campaigns. The U.S. also expelled 10 Russian embassy officials, a move Moscow responded quickly – although State Department spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday that the United States had not received any official notification. the Kremlin’s deliberate actions against the US diplomatic mission in Russia.
Meanwhile, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is on the verge of dying in a Russian prison, doctors and supporters have said, with the US threatening public and private action if the Kremlin allows him to die.
“As for the specific measures we would take, we look at a variety of different costs that we would impose and I will not telegraph publicly at this time,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday. . “But I have said that there will be consequences if Mr Navalny dies.”
Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov returned home to Russia last month for consultations with his government. Antonov remains in Russia for the time being, the Russian embassy in Washington confirmed on Tuesday. He did not immediately comment further.
Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.