COVID-19’s “fourth wave” in Colorado is not among the worst peaks in the country, but it is difficult to say where it could go in the second half of April.
Hospitalizations in Colorado due to confirmed or suspected COVID-19 increased by 33% from March 18 to Sunday, which was the 14th highest growth rate in the country.
It’s not nearly as bad as Michigan and Minnesota, where hospitalizations doubled at the time. However, 19 states have seen hospitalizations for the virus fall in the last month.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment reported that 568 people were hospitalized statewide with COVID-19 confirmed or suspected as of Monday afternoon. That was an increase of 16 from Sunday, but only four more than they were hospitalized on Saturday.
New hospital admissions have been relatively constant, at about 80 a day in the past two weeks, said Beth Carlton, an associate professor of environmental and occupational health at the Colorado School of Public Health.
While it’s good news that hospitalizations aren’t “growing” at the moment, we’ll need at least a few days of data to find out if the growth has stopped, she said. It is not uncommon to have a few days that are abnormal – days when the number decreases or decreases slightly, even if hospitalizations increase in general or vice versa.
“I think we all hope it’s the beginning of a decline, but I wouldn’t say that with any confidence,” she said.
The increase in the Colorado case in the last month has also been higher than in most states. The total number of new COVID-19 infections increased by approximately 9.5%, which was the 15th growth rate. Michigan also had the unfortunate distinction of being at the top also with about 28% more cases than on March 18th.
All states increased because the number is cumulative, but 21 of them kept growth below 5%.
New infections in Colorado appear to be down about 600 from the previous week, with 9,927 reported for the week ending Sunday. They also appeared to be declining by a small amount in the week ending April 11, but the end result was a modest increase after late reports.
Deaths have risen slightly in Colorado since last month, but that doesn’t say much about how deadly the fourth wave was for younger people who were more likely to be hospitalized this time. People who die of COVID-19 today may have been infected a month ago and it could be another two weeks before their loss appears in state statistics.
The figures can’t say much about the effect of ending most state-level restrictions on Friday and moving to county and city level control. It usually takes about two weeks for a policy change to appear in the numbers, Carlton said, and it can be difficult to find a model at the state level.
Most counties have chosen to relax their restrictions, but to varying degrees, and it is unclear how much risk residents in different parts of the state will embrace. Health officials have expressed concern that allowing more mixtures, while the virus is still widespread, could lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.
Hospitalizations have risen Monday across many areas of the Front Range, with an increasing number reported in at least eight of the last 14 days in Denver, Arapahoe, Douglas, Larimer and Weld counties. The test rate, which returned positively in the last week, also reached levels in 10 counties spread across the Front Range area, the high country and the western slope.
Carlton said she was also concerned about the south-central region of the state, which includes Custer, Fremont, Huerfano, Las Animas and Pueblo counties. The latest regional modeling report, released on Wednesday, showed a high spread rate there. But everyone should be careful and wear masks and avoid congestion until two weeks after their last shot, she said.
“Until people are completely vaccinated, they face risks,” she said.
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