Iran’s enrichment with 60% uranium is not only the latest in a series of growing violations of the 2015 nuclear deal, but also the Islamic Republic’s closest to ever producing quality fissile materials for weapons.
For countries that oppose a nuclear Iran, this is a worrying development, bringing Tehran one step closer to a bomb. But it is also just a step, not the final one, towards this goal.
In February, Israel’s Defense Forces estimated that Iran would take about two years to produce a nuclear bomb once it decided to do so. Most of the time it would be necessary not to produce the 90% enriched uranium needed for a weapon, but the other components of such a device, especially the detonator, which the Israeli army believes would take about 21 months to be designed and built.
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Although Iran has made some forays into this front, starting research that clearly violates the nuclear agreement of 2015 earlier this year in the manufacture of metallic uranium – a process of taking highly enriched uranium in the form of gas and turning it into solid metal , which is needed to produce the core of a nuclear bomb – the IDF’s overall schedule has not changed significantly.
Crucially, in Israel and the United States, the prevailing assessment is that Iran is not – at this stage – interested in “bursting” and moving fully towards the production of a nuclear bomb. The regime’s economy has deteriorated in recent years due to crushing US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, with the prospect of a diplomatic deal with the West, reduced sanctions and resulting international investment, more attractive than an atomic weapon – at least for now.
Exterior view of the “Grand Hotel Wien” in Vienna, Austria, April 9, 2021, where nuclear talks are taking place with Iran behind closed doors. (Photo AP / Florian Schroetter)
The 60% enrichment is an extremely provocative move, which Iranian officials have publicly said is a response to the alleged Israeli attack on the Natanz nuclear site earlier this month. But it also aims to increase tensions over the ongoing negotiations in Vienna between Iran and the United States, through intermediaries, regarding a mutual return to the 2015 agreement, formally known as the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan. .
Clearly, the move to a higher level of enrichment has no clear civilian application, which seems to fly in the face of Iran’s long-standing claim that its nuclear program is for nonviolent purposes.
Former US President Donald Trump abrogated the agreement in 2018, imposing heavy sanctions on the Islamic Republic and its officials. This has led Iran to increasingly violate the terms of the agreement, enriching more uranium and to a greater degree than is permitted by the JCPOA and conducting other prohibited nuclear research.
US President Joe Biden is determined to return to the 2015 agreement, explicitly setting his goal during his campaign and working actively on it since taking office and hoping the agreement will serve as a starting point for further negotiations. with Iran.
He called on Iran to return to compliance with the agreement before the US lifted sanctions, while Tehran demanded the exact opposite. But despite this apparent stalemate, the Israeli military believes that the US and Iran will eventually compromise and return to the JCPOA. Both sides expressed satisfaction with the progress made in the Vienna talks.
Enriching
To produce a nuclear bomb, Iran would need quality uranium for weapons, enriched to a level of 90%. In its natural form, uranium is usually composed of three main isotopes, uranium-238, uranium-235 and uranium-234, differentiated by the number of neutrons in their nuclei (146, 143 and 142, respectively).
In this photo from the February 3, 2007 file, a technician is working on the uranium conversion facility just outside Isfahan, Iran. (Photo AP / Vahid Salemi, file)
Uranium-238 is by far the most common isotope, accounting for more than 99% of any given piece of uranium. It is radioactive, but it is not fissile, which means that it is unable to trigger the chain reaction of the explosive needed for a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, uranium-235, which accounts for less than three-quarters of a percentage of a piece of uranium, is fissile and is the basic ingredient needed for an atomic bomb. (Uranium-234 is even less widespread and also not fissile.)
To extract uranium-235, strong centrifuges are used, which rotate with uranium hexafluoride gas at a fast speed, until the isotopes begin to separate from each other by their atomic weight, uranium-238 being harder to push on the centrifugal walls and uranium lighter-235 remaining to the center.
It is a slow process that requires several rounds of centrifugation to collect more and more highly enriched uranium – that is, uranium that contains more and more isotopes of uranium-235.
Enriched between three and five percent, uranium can be used to power most nuclear reactors. Over 20%, uranium is considered highly enriched and has far fewer civilian applications. At about 90% enrichment, uranium is considered quality for weapons and can be used for a nuclear bomb.
But quality uranium for weapons is not in itself a nuclear weapon. According to Olli Heinonen, former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran could theoretically create uranium-type weapons within a week, though not necessarily enough for a nuclear bomb.
One of the reasons why Iran has chosen to enrich uranium to higher levels and store larger quantities of it as the main form of violation of the JCPOA is that it is a slightly reversible step. As happened when Iran entered into the agreement, highly enriched uranium can simply be taken out of Iran and sold, probably to Russia, which would reset the clock. It is a provocative move for Iran to take over the nuclear front to raise tensions with its opponents, but one that is understood not to be as significant as other aspects of creating a nuclear weapon.
“Although the agreements may prevent the collection of fissile material, some research and development projects are irreversible,” an Israeli military official said earlier this year.
