The Israeli general says stopping the nuclear program will be difficult

As Iran increases uranium enrichment to 60%, a short jump to the military level to 90%, world powers are trying to persuade the Islamic Republic to take a break.

Meetings aimed at bringing both Iran and the United States back to a form of the nuclear deal signed in 2015, known as the Global Comprehensive Action Plan, resumed in Austria this week.

Although Israel is not part of the talks, it is a major player in the drama that could escalate rapidly.

Israel, along with its Arab allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, wants the US to increase pressure on Iran by strengthening the JCPOA to include terrorism, missile development and what they call “Iran’s expansionism” throughout the Middle East.

Iran and Israel have engaged in a covert war that has intensified in the past month. An explosion disrupted one of the Iranian nuclear centers in Natanz; one of Iran’s spy ships was hit by an explosive device in the Red Sea; and at least two Israeli-owned cargo ships were targeted.

Iran’s decision to increase uranium enrichment came after the Natanz explosion, which the Islamic Republic blamed on Israel.

Israel has vowed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if all others fail and have experience in the arena.

Forty years ago, in June 1981, eight Israeli F-16s took off, flew over the Red Sea, crossed the Jordanian-Saudi border and dropped bombs on the Iraqi nuclear power plant in Osirak, a few days before it. to be heated. It was called Operation Opera and one of the pilots was General Amos Yadlin.

In 2007, Yadlin, while serving as military intelligence chief for the Israeli army, helped design a second operation. It targeted Syria’s secret nuclear power plant. Operation Orchard was also a success – the target was completely destroyed.

Yadlin said that if it is resolved, it will be very different this time: “Saddam and Assad have been surprised. Iran has been waiting for this attack for 20 years.”

Yadlin said Iran’s program was “much more fortified and dispersed,” while nuclear programs in Iraq and Syria were concentrated in one place. Iran’s nuclear program is in dozens of sites, many buried deep in the mountains. In addition, it is not clear that the intelligence agencies know all the details about the locations of the Iranian program.

“Iran has learned from what we have done, but we have also learned from what we have done, and now we have more capabilities,” Yadlin said.

Israeli military planners say that regardless of the talks in Vienna, they have five strategies to stop Iran:

• Option 1: Push for a stronger agreement between Iran, the US, Russia, China, France, Germany and the UK.
• Option 2: Prove to Iran that the cost is too high, in terms of sanctions and diplomacy, to continue on the current path.
• Option 3: What is known in Israel as “Strategy C” – using covert attacks, clandestine actions and cyber attacks. In essence, try everything except war.
• Option 4: Bomb Iran’s nuclear program.
• Option 5: Pressure for regime change in Iran. This is the most difficult strategy.

Due to the force of the ayatollahs – their control over the army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and a strong force known for its brutality, Basij – which encourages internal rebellion is a long blow.

However, the regime is increasingly unpopular at home and the country has seen more protests in recent years, according to Ali Nader, an Iranian analyst with the Democracy Foundation. The main reason for these protests is a shaky economy, hit hard by US sanctions, which serve as the main American lever against Iran in the nuclear talks in Vienna.

“The United States has a complete suffocation of the Iranian economy,” Nader said. In 2018, Iran had cash reserves worth over $ 120 billion. Due to sanctions, the stock fell to about $ 4 billion in 2020, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

The first thing Iran wants during these talks is for the US to ease sanctions, allowing it to sell oil to Asia and Europe freely. According to the International Energy Agency, which monitors oil production and transportation, Iran is imposing sanctions and increasing supplies to China.

In January, Iranian oil shipments to China reached record levels. Nader believes that the US, by not doing more to enforce these sanctions, signals that it is ready to conclude an agreement.

But the big question for discussion is who has the leverage in what becomes a chicken game.

Henry Rome is following the negotiations as an analyst for Eurasia Group. He does not expect a malfunction or a discovery, because both sides try to make the other make the first move.

Given that Iran will elect a new president in two months, Rome said that “Iran does not want to be seen as desperate, the supreme leader would prefer to wait until after the June 18 elections before making any concessions.”

“Iran is playing a weak hand, but they are very good at it,” Roma said.

Yadlin is nervous that the US will be too eager for a deal and will give too much, repeating what he calls the mistakes of the 2015 deal. Yadlin points to Iran’s enrichment achievements, reaching the symbolic mark of 60%.

“The first business turns out to be a problem, look how fast it moves,” Yadlin said. “It could have enough uranium enriched to quickly reach two or three bombs.”

Although there is still some work to be done on delivery and armament methods, Yadlin has no doubt that they have the knowledge to produce nuclear bombs.