Raúl Castro will retire at the age of 89, leaving the island’s maximum power in April Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (CCP), the first to take place after the death of his brother Fidel in 2016. The Castro brothers have held the reins firmly in Cuba since 1959, which is now opening to a new era with other people in power.
The change is taking place at the worst moment in the Cuban economy in almost 30 years, the Communist Party congress, which marks Raúl Castro’s departure from power, will have to accentuate reforms aimed at greater openness to private enterprise.
The new team is “awaiting the task of building its legitimacy, which can only emanate from its own political project, which brings economic prosperity with social justice in Cuba,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Center for Analysis of Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. .
These men and women, led by the current president, are expected Miguel Diaz-Canel, At the age of 60, I arrive at the CCP’s next congress, which will take place between April 16 and 19, at the party’s top leadership, the center of power on the island.
Cuba it will continue to be socialist, but for specialists constitutional legality will limit the preeminence of ideology and may allow for political openness.
In April 2019, a new Constitution was approved defending the “irreversible” nature of socialism in the country. She is “the daughter of her time and reflects the diversity of society,” said Raúl Castro, who after handing over the presidency Diaz-Canel In 2018, he will now leave the CCP leadership.
Unlike its predecessor, approved unanimously in 1976, the new constitution received the approval of 78.3 percent of the popular vote and 22 percent of rejection or abstention, a high level in the Cuban context. However, in recent months, artists, intellectuals and other sectors of civil society have begun to demand rights and freedoms in the country.
Faced with these statements, the new team is expected to promote a political reform of the state “in order to effectively manage the tensions that are manifesting in society”, he underlines. Changeable considering that at least theoretically the Constitution allows the devolution of the power of the president.
On November 27, an unprecedented peaceful protest of 300 artists was registered in front of the Ministry of Culture, demanding freedom of expression. While a few weeks ago a decree for animal welfare was approved, considered the first victory of informal civil society.
The rapid spread of the Internet over the past three years on the island has allowed many Cubans to express their dissatisfaction. The CCP, in turn, has already announced that it will face “political-ideological subversion” in social networks.
For ChangeableThis new ruling generation has the major challenge of responding with a political project different from that of the generation of historical leaders, which grants high levels of freedom to society.
The tradition of the revolution leaders had been to mobilize their hosts for active ideological support, but that is changing.
“Today’s mobilization is selective. Not with an ideological logic, but with a political logic, according to the government, demanding neutrality rather than militancy,” said Cuban academic Arturo López-Levy of Holy Names University in Oakland California.
Another key factor will be the relationship that the new political team maintains with the United States, which for some experts largely determines what is happening on the island.
The new president of United States, Joe Biden, advanced in its campaign that it could remove the sanctions imposed by its predecessor, Donald Trump, and resumes a policy of approaching the island, with the compass of the demand for respect for human rights. However, so far Cuba has not been a priority.
“Because of the dynamics that exist between Cuba and the United States, the United States directly and indirectly conditions much of what is happening. [en Cuba], of decision-making even of Cuban leaders, “said political analyst Harold Cardenas.
The new Cuban political project should also build a pragmatic relationship with the United States, and one thing that could change is the strong military presence in the government, the CCP and the economy.
Much of the 280 sanctions imposed on Cuba by the Trump administration targeted military-led companies. Under a new policy, they could pass into the hands of civilians so as not to be the target of sanctions.
Even if they are civilians or military, the state owns these companies. If this does not happen and US hostility continues, internally “Cuba will experience a long renegotiation of civil-military relations,” says López-Levy.
Then, “the army will have the perfect justification to continue to play its prominent role in the political and socio-economic sphere,” he concluded.
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