Oaxaca de Juárez – Campaigns towards elections on June 6 they have not officially started all over the country and there are already 61 actors assassinated politicians, of which 18 were candidates for a popularly elected position, according to the Indicator from Political violence in Mexico prepared by Etellekt specialist consultancy.
Ivonne Gallegos Carreño, candidate for mayor of Ocotlán de Morelos, Oaxaca, killed last Saturday, is the 18th victim in this electoral process which began in September 2020. It contained a trial under a number of risk factors that erupted into armed aggression without any protection.
These offenses were committed at a time prior to the final definition of nominations, considered by consulting as one of the biggest risks, along with the final stage of the campaigns.
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Violence is on the rise
In accordance with Ruben Salazar, specialist in political and risk analysis and director of Etellekt consulting, the electoral process in 2021 is already considered the second most violent in history, only below that in 2018, when 48 vacuum cleaner Yes candidate.
Salazar identifies four scenarios to which the current electoral process can be directed violence: one desirable, one inertial, one critical and one catastrophic.
So far the first has already been overcome and there is an 80% probability that the killings of applicants and candidates will be between 30 and 60.
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If the 48 victims in 2018 were exceeded, Mexico would have reached the critical stage.
” violence in two moments: during the definitions of the candidacies and already when chime.
“A pattern of violence is repeated in pre-campaigns or inter-campaigns, when the candidates still do not have registration with the electoral bodies”, Salazar clarifies.
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The above, explains the expert, happens because when applicants are the most vulnerable, because by law it only happens candidate protection with registration not to pre-candidates.
“The authority’s response is more lax when murdering an applicant than if they are already candidates registered before electoral bodies.
“The cases remain in oblivion and impunity, and the intellectual author is rarely found,” he added, citing as an example that of the 18 aspirants killed in the process, there are only arrests for one case.
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Higher risk
Of the assassinated candidates, 14 were candidates for the municipal presidency and 66% were candidates for the opposition. In addition, 15 were from countries in the southeast of the country.
According to a number prepared by universal, of the 18 murdered applicants, seven are from Veracruz; four from Guerrero; two from Quintana Roo. Guanajuato, Chihuahua, Chiapas and Jalisco have one. They were joined by the victim from Oaxaca. Of these, 15 were men and three were women.
For the specialist, other risk factors that can be listed in crimes of those looking for a electoral position are the presence of drug trafficking, high social and political conflict, marginalization and the offers of the aspirants themselves to fight organized crime o la corruption.
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He claims that the protection model presented by the federal government is based on a misdiagnosis that is based only on the number of people executed, without taking into account risk factors such as threats and intimidation, which is why it is “impossible to provide precautions”. . protection if it is not known who is in danger ”.
The aim, he says, should be to identify candidates at risk and approach them to act earlier, and not just when there is already an imminent risk of losing their lives.
In addition, he points out that the government’s plan is based on a criminalization of victims, because it easily ensures that in most cases there is organized crime, regardless of the political motives and background of the victims. This, he argues, is a return to the narrative of governments in Felipe Calderon Yes Enrique Peña Nieto.
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“It is not just a crime, but it infuses psychological terror into the candidate, forcing him to give up or threaten to use more extreme methods of violence, but cases such as threats to identify motives and enforce appropriate electoral sanctions are not investigated. of electoral competition that defines the results in a contest “, says the expert.