Republicans and Democrats are lining up to replace the late Rep. Ron Wright
Ron Wright GOP Candidate In Texas House Race Endorsed By Fellow Korean-American Representatives Ex-Trump Assistant Pierson Won’t Run For Seat In Dallas-area House Some Republicans Say Proxy Voting Gives Advantage To Democrats MORE (R-Texas) in a special election seen as a possible bellwether of the Democrats’ ability to spark enthusiasm in Texas and capitalize on their renewed popularity in the suburbs.
Twenty-three candidates – 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one Libertarian, and one independent – have run for the May 1 election. While the 6th congressional district has been controlled by Republicans since the 1980s, Biden came within 3 marks of turning the district, which consists of the suburbs of Dallas-Fort Worth and the more rural counties of Ellis and Navarro.
“I think it’s ringing a bell, but I think it’s still on the cusp of becoming some sort of swing district,” said Texas-based Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett. “Last [five years] the district has become much more competitive, the state has become much more competitive. ”
A victory in the district would put Texas on the map for Democrats who would decide where to invest money and energy in the midterm elections.
‘This is not necessarily a bell. I think the important thing is that if we get this done, it means it’s going to be a democratic landslide, as if Texas is really on the verge of turning blue, ”said a Texas-based Democratic strategist.
The primary will take place on May 1 and will be the first election in the state since the Republicans dominated up and down in November, raising Democratic hopes of finally turning the state blue. Wright won his district – one of the races the Democrats targeted – by about 9 points in 2020
Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, who lost 12 points to Wright in 2018, is seen by many Democrats as the front runner of their party. Sanchez credits her work as a previous candidate, as well as her involvement with Tarrant Together, an organization focused on registering and involving Democrats, as having an advantage in the field.
“I already have a high name ID, so it’s a little bit easier for me than other candidates,” she told The Hill. “I don’t think a field is as busy as people say. I think the voters on May 1 will be pretty sophisticated voters. These will be people who vote in municipal elections and primaries, and they will look for the names of the candidates they know have an affiliation with the district and want to serve them. “
On the Republican side of the race, Wright’s widow, Susan Wright, is seen as the front runner. Wright’s name ID and presence in the district are also seen as benefits to her participation in the special election.
From a Tarrant County perspective, [she] is really the only known name candidate to come out of Tarrant, ”said a Texas-based GOP strategist. “The good news for her is that she has no competition in Tarrant and it’s still a pretty robust turnout on its own.”
Democrats see some advantages in the race.
In addition to Ellis and Navarro counties, the Dallas district also includes suburban parts of Tarrant County, a demographic Democrats that saw success in 2020. Demographic shifts, especially in the suburbs of the state, have made Democratic voters more likely to move to the state.
In addition, the past two months have been filled with negative reports about Republicans. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has been criticized for his leadership during the deadly winter storm and power outages that hit the entire state in February. Critics, particularly those in urban and suburban districts, have also hit Abbott for rolling back the coronavirus restrictions in the state as public health officials urge Americans to remain vigilant.
“Of course this is going to be a problem this way, especially since it’s so fast,” Hackett said. “It’s in the midst of a recovery, and central Texas decides to reopen it ahead of those guidelines.”
Democrats also argue that the approval of Biden’s US bailout plan, which failed to garner a single Republican vote, will help the party in the district, given the plan’s popularity with voters.
There is no doubt that you will be given a relief test Donald Trump
Donald Trump The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented By Facebook – Biden to hit road, tout COVID-19 relief law Oregon senator takes center stage in Democratic filibuster debate Juan Williams: Trump’s jealous rants can’t hide his failures MORE“At least the name stamped on it didn’t hit some voters,” Hackett said. The American people and the Sixth District of Texas will see the impact of this bill. In this case, they will see the impact of what good governance looks like and good governance exclusively of democrats. ”
Still, Democrats warn that the race is likely to be a challenging out-of-year election for the party in a district the Cook Political Report labeled as likely Republican.
“The way we’re looking at this is it’s going to be a tough fight,” said Texas’s other Democratic strategist, citing Republican benefits in Texas and nationwide special elections.
Republicans say they are confident in their pre-election odds, citing their historic advantage in run-off races and in the already conservative district.
GOP strategists say their candidates should plan to focus on cultural issues that remain important to rural voters, as well as issues affecting more urban and suburban voters, such as the pandemic.
Texas-based GOP adviser Brendan Steinhauser called the conservative focus in rural areas like Ellis and Navarro “God, weapons and babies,” but added that the pandemic is more of a concern in more populated areas like Tarrant County.
“As far as we can see, those cultural issues are already at the forefront, but the urban areas are different; they are talking about the pandemic, ”said Steinhauser. “Those voters are those changing voters.”
Steinhauser openly supports Marine Corps Reserve veteran Michael Wood, an outspoken Trump critic.
Specifically, in his campaign launch video, Wood urged the GOP for “a cult of personality, a vehicle for one man’s ambitions and grievances.”
The field also includes Trump backers, including Sery Kim, who previously served under the former president as an Assistant Administrator in the Office of Women’s Business Ownership at the Small Business Administration.
“I’m driving this race because I think [the American dream] has been violated by the policy of Joe Biden
Joe Biden The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Biden to hit road, tout COVID-19 relief law Oregon senator takes center stage in Democratic filibuster debate This week: Democrats see next step after coronavirus bill win MORE and Nancy Pelosi
Nancy Pelosi The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Biden to hit road, tout COVID-19 relief law This week: Democrats see next step after coronavirus bill win ‘ LAKE, ”Kim told The Hill.
Retired professional wrestler and Republican candidate Dan Rodimer brushed aside any concerns from the GOP about the district’s trending blue, saying the party was united.
“No. Republicans are strong and united – especially now,” Rodimer told The Hill. land in the wrong side. It’s America First, not America Last! ”
Steinhauser said the variety of candidates on the GOP side “is a good thing” because of the diversity.
Ultimately, insiders say it is unclear what effect the outcome of the special election will have on the midterm elections, which are just under two years away.
“It’s hard to take anything away from a race that will be this close to the previous election or, more importantly, so far from the next,” the other GOP strategist said.
“I think if you were mapping out what a Bellwether County or a Bellwether District would look like, you would shape it this way, but I also think you’re playing a football game in a basketball arena right now.”