Look, Jack, the Americans will gather long before July 4th

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Biden knows that, though, doesn’t he? The reason he targeted July 4 as a day for Americans to gather with friends and make barbecues is not because he thinks it will take so long to reach a degree of normalcy. It was partly because of symbolism (“we declare our independence from the virus!”) And partly because its habit with the pandemic is to underestimate and over-broadcast. It has never strayed from its goal of delivering 100 million doses in its first 100 days, even though it was clear by Inauguration Day, with the US already approaching that pace, that we would easily reach that target.

Keep in mind that even blue state governors, such as Larry Hogan and Andrew Cuomo, have begun to reopen * large locations *, such as Camden Yards, with limited capacity. By the time July rolls around, some may be at full capacity. There will no doubt be mass rallies on Independence Day this year to watch fireworks and perhaps not exclusively in the red states. Biden just wants to set the bar to return to normal as low as possible to make the child’s play so that his team can clear it – and, of course, manage expectations if a vaccine-resistant black swan emerges in order to complicate things.

Go here at 2:55 and watch Gottlieb drop another truth bomb in the debate over relaxing relaxation measures. Vaccinated people will relax as a precaution, no matter how the “debate” unfolds, he says correctly:

Now check this:

We will reach 50% vaccinated by early May at a rate of 1.43 million doses per day – but we are well ahead of that rate, averaging 2.2 million doses in the last seven days. And, of course, a significant part of the population has already been immunized by contracting the virus and recovering from it, which means that the effective immunity of the population will be greater than 50% on the day we reach that stage of the vaccine. The herd’s immunity could be installed by April. And certainly, with so many elderly citizens being vaccinated, the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed by a new wave will disappear by then.

Why, things are looking so good now in terms of supply that even the blue state of Michigan, led by Gretchen Whitmer, is preparing to throw “equity” considerations into prioritizing the vaccine and open it to everyone in just a few weeks:

The Michiganderers will celebrate July 4 anyway.

When our friends in Europe will be able to celebrate the masses again is another matter, as Italy, Germany and France are affected by many growing cases at the moment. Italy is looking at another blockade around Easter, and German scientists say a “third wave” has already begun in their country, with more restrictions coming soon. How come? This is partly due to the fact that the British version is carried out wildly, but partly because it is fighting vaccinations. Here is how it accumulates in the US in cumulative vaccinations per capita:

We are three times better. Measured by the current seven-day average, we are twice as fast. I wonder how the scenes from the USA and Great Britain that return to normal will play on the continent this summer. We hope that it will lead to less hesitation about the vaccine among Europeans, but I wonder if there will be no political consequences for governments and at a slow pace.

I will leave you with this gloomy story that is characteristic of the media. It is not false, strictly speaking: the only way to “end” COVID is to vaccinate the planet, which will not happen soon. As long as there are populations in which the virus can spread, the risk of developing a variant that can beat current vaccines will remain. But the pandemic, as we know, will end here by the summer, and mRNA vaccine developers should be able to adapt quickly to the variants as they arise and provide Americans with boosters. The pandemic is not over, but it is over.

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