SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts say they remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic as the number of new cases falls and the number of vaccinated Utahns rises sharply.
Friday marked the first time there have been fewer than 15,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Utah since Sept. 24, 2020, according to the Utah Department of Health. It is a figure that reached over 63,000 at some point at the end of November.
The seven-day positive person-to-person positivity rate fell below 10% on Feb. 26 for the first time since Sept. 7, 2020. Utah’s seven-day average on Friday was 543 new cases a day. , which is the lowest since September 14, 2020. All of this data shows that Utah is close to where the fall growth has led to the highest COVID-19 rates the state has received to date.
In the meantime, vaccinations are on the rise. The Department of Health now reports that 529,871 Utahns have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, which means that the number of Utahns who have been vaccinated since December 15, 2020 is now nearly 1.5 times the number of people who have contracted COVID -19 from a year ago on Saturday.
But while some states have used the vaccine, their own cases are declining, or nationally, as a reason to ease restrictions, a Utah health expert said Friday that it is still too early to do so.
Dr. Brandon Webb, an infectious disease physician for Intermountain Healthcare, estimates that Utah has about 30% immunity when considering vaccines given or recent cases. That’s a figure he said was “great,” he says, but the estimate is still below 70 percent or more, which experts believe must be reached to reach the herd’s immunity.
“Right now, we’re not there yet,” Webb said during a question and answer session with members of the media on Friday. “We are not at a time when we can rely solely on this 30% effective immunity, so it is important that we continue to respect the restrictions and social precautions set by the Department of Health.”
That’s why Webb warned about easing restrictions early or celebrating too early, especially since some states, such as Texas, announced the plans this week.
Gov. Spencer Cox said Thursday that Utah will continue to move forward with its reopening plan in different steps, even amid pressure from politicians inside and outside Utah to reopen “100%” growth.
There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish line, but at this point, the last thing we can afford is to hit the ball before crossing the goal line.
–Dr. Brandon Webb, infectious disease physician for Intermountain Healthcare
For months, former Gary Herbert has used a sports cliché in his coronavirus press sessions. With every positive step Utah took last year, he stressed that leaders and health experts were not ready to “spike football.” Simply put, it was too early to celebrate, because there was still work to be done to get out of the pandemic.
With the reduction in COVID-19 cases and available vaccines, Webb offered a similar sports analogy on Friday.
“We have to see this until the end. There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish line, but at the moment, the last thing we can afford is to hit the ball before we cross the goal line,” he said. he said. said. “If we think about it in terms of strong resilience and people making personal decisions based on individual level of risk, we will be able to reach that finish line while our vaccine distribution continues to accelerate.”
Part of the reason why experts remain cautiously optimistic is that new declines in the number of reported cases have begun to flatten, indicating a possible plateau in new cases instead of disappearing completely.
At the same time, Webb stressed that vaccination efforts around the world are in a “race against” the various variants of coronavirus discovered that could counteract the entire vaccination process.
So how should Utah go about reopening?
“The wisest course of action”
Utah leaders on Thursday moved Salt Lake and Davis counties to the “moderate” level of the state’s transmission rate. They joined Box Elder, Cache, Duchesne, Grand, Juab, Morgan, San Juan, Sanpete, Wasatch, Washington and Weber counties in that category.
Only five counties – Daggett, Millard, Piute, Rich and Wayne – are in the “low” transmission rate. The remaining 11 counties remain in the “high” transmission category. These are Beaver, Carbon, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Savier, Summit, Tooele, Uintah and Utah counties.
Webb called the state’s multi-level approach to reopening COVID-19 “the wisest course of action.”
“As fewer and fewer people in the community are susceptible, then we are able to gradually loosen the restrictions,” he said. “All these incremental steps to weaken the restrictions must be linked to the number of people in our community who have immunity.”
Therefore, he encourages people to wear masks, to practice social distancing when needed and to avoid “poorly ventilated areas”. All this can help reduce the spread of the virus.
While some communities have reduced restrictions, Webb has encouraged people to continue to use caution and follow guidelines to reduce the spread of coronavirus, even if they have been eliminated. He added that vaccines are extremely useful, but suggested that more people need to get them.
“Not everyone should see the vaccine as a ticket to full freedom, while we still have a fairly large community transmission,” he said. “Not everyone has been vaccinated.”
Addition of a new vaccine to the mixture
Utahns began receiving the Johnson & Johnson one-shot vaccine this week. Webb said he had read the full 80-page report on the vaccine collected from clinical trials and said the vaccine was “very favorable.”
“The safety data are excellent,” he added, noting that serious vaccine side effects were “very rare.”
Dr. Angela Dunn, a state epidemiologist with the Utah Department of Health, said Thursday that one of the most frequently asked questions the health department has received is which of the three vaccination options it should receive. She advised that getting any vaccine is the best approach to the process.
“The best vaccine for you is the one you can get first, regardless of the manufacturer,” she said.
Intermountain officials pointed out that this is the case for everyone except 16- or 17-year-olds, because the Pfizer vaccine is the only one that has been approved for such young people so far.
Most vaccines given so far are given through Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, which requires two doses. While both are considered to be approximately 95% effective after the second dose, it is possible that someone may test positive for COVID-19 after receiving the primary dose of any vaccine.
In this case, Webb said the symptoms are usually milder. He added that it is now recommended that anyone taking COVID-19 after receiving the first dose of any vaccine continue to receive the second dose after their case is resolved and wait beyond the 10-day isolation period.
“It’s safe and appropriate to go ahead and take the second dose,” he said.
Utah’s 6-month outlook
It’s been almost six months since the fall began in Utah. Now that Utah is close to where it was at the end of last summer, what will the next six months look like?
Available vaccines are the biggest difference between September 2020 and March 2021. This is what Webb called “the most important tool at the moment”.
Current trends, he said, are also “favorable” that restrictions, such as mask warrants, could be lifted in the next six months. However, for this to happen, Utahns will need to follow guidelines to slow the spread of coronavirus.
“We must continue the course and reach the finish line, continuing to respect social restrictions and other layers of protection until the number of our cases and the number of people vaccinated are at a point where we can safely pass the baton from those things. which we are all tired of to immunity, “he said.” We are on the right track now with the current distribution of vaccines so that we can gradually loosen restrictions throughout the spring and summer. “