Infectious disease experts have expressed concern about Pope Francis’ future trip to Iraq, given the sharp rise in coronavirus cases in the country, its fragile health care system and the fact that Iraqis will inevitably form crowds to see him. .
No one wants to tell Francis to cancel his plans, and the Iraqi government has every interest in showing relative stability by receiving a pope at Abraham’s birthplace for the first time.
The March 5-8 trip will provide much-needed moral support to Iraqi Christians, as well as advance the pope’s efforts to build bridges with the Islamic world.
But from a purely epidemiological point of view, as well as from the public health message it conveys, a pope’s trip to Iraq in the midst of a global pandemic is not recommended, according to health experts.
Their concerns were reinforced by Sunday’s news that the Vatican’s ambassador to Iraq, the main person in charge of the trip and who would accompany Francisco in all his actions, tested positive for COVID-19 and was in quarantine.
In an email to The Associated Press, the embassy said Archbishop Mitja Leskovar’s symptoms were mild and that he was still preparing for Francis’ visit.
Beyond that, experts point out that wars, economic crises and an exodus of Iraqi professionals have devastated the country’s hospital system, while studies show that most new COVID-19 cases in Iraq are due to the most contagious variant first identified in Iraq. Great Britain.
“It just doesn’t seem like a good idea,” said Dr. Navid Madani, a virologist and founding director of the Center for Health Sciences Education in the Middle East and North Africa at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Harvard Medical School.
Iran-born Madani co-wrote an article in The Lancet last year about the region’s defunct response to COVID-19, saying Iraq, Syria and Yemen were ill-prepared to tackle the crisis because they were still suffering from extremist insurgencies and millions of people in need of humanitarian aid.
In a telephone interview, Madani mentioned that the Middle East is known for its hospitality and warned that the enthusiasm among Iraqis to meet a dialogue leader like Francis in an abandoned and warlike part of the world could lead to involuntary violations of Iraqi measures. control against the virus.
This could lead to unsafe situations or super contagious events, he warned.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an infectious disease expert at the University of Exeter School of Medicine, agreed.
“It’s a perfect storm to generate many cases that you won’t be able to handle,” he said.
Organizers have promised to impose the use of masks, social distance and capacity limits at papal events, with the possibility of increasing the number of places where diagnostic tests can be performed, according to two Iraqi officials.
The health protocol is “critical, but manageable,” a member of the government told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
The Vatican has taken its own precautions. The 84-year-old pope, his entourage of 20 people and the more than 70 journalists who would travel in the pontiff’s plane are vaccinated.
But this is not the case for Iraqis who will gather in the north, center and south of the country to attend Franciscan Masses in open and closed spaces, listen to his speeches, participate in his prayers and organize a complicated trip logistics.
And scientists say that’s the problem.
“We are in the midst of a global pandemic. And it is important to send the right messages, “said Pankhania. “The right messages are: the fewer interactions with other human beings, the better.”
He also questioned the image of a Vatican delegation when Iraqis are not vaccinated, noting that Iraqis risk participating in such events only because the pope was there.
Speaking to Vatican officials and the media, including AP journalists, he said: “You are all protected from a serious illness. So if they get infected, they won’t die. But people who go to see them could be infected and die.
“Under these conditions, is it wise for them to walk, and because you are walking, do people come to see you and become infected?” He asked.
The World Health Organization was diplomatic when asked about the appropriateness of the papal trip to Iraq, noting that countries should assess the risk of each event given the contagion landscape and then decide whether it should be postponed or not. can be celebrated safely.
“For example, if they have birthday parties, it’s all about controlling that risk,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical director for COVID-19. “It’s about assessing the epidemiological situation in the country and then ensuring that, even if the event takes place, it can be done in the safest way possible.”
Francisco said he intends to leave even though most Iraqis must watch him on television to avoid infection. He told the Catholic news service that “they will see that the pope is there in their country.”
Francisco has frequently called for a fair distribution of vaccines and compliance with government health measures, although he tends not to wear masks. For months he has avoided actions with the public, even with controlled care and social distancing, to limit the risk of infections.
Dr Michael Head, director of global health research at the University of Southampton School of Medicine, said the number of new daily cases in Iraq was “increasing significantly right now” with around 4,000 daily infections reported by the Ministry of Health. near the peak reached during the first wave of September.
Head said any trip to Iraq should include measures to prevent contagion, such as the use of masks, hand washing, social distancing and good indoor ventilation.
“We hope to see proactive infection control strategies during the pope’s visit to Baghdad,” he said.
The Iraqi government imposed an amended quarantine and a shutdown in mid-February amid rising cases. Schools and mosques have been closed, and restaurants and cafes are often able to place orders.
But the government has decided not to stop all trade because of the difficulty of implementing the measure and its effect on the struggling Iraqi economy, Iraqi sources told PA.
Many Iraqis wear masks irregularly, and some doubt the severity of the virus.
Harvard virologist Madani urged tour organizers to let science and data guide their decisions.
Postponing the trip or turning it into a virtual format would have “a pretty big impact in terms of global leadership,” he said, because “it would indicate that the safety of the Iraqi public is a priority.”