Washington and Tehran will finally be able to conclude a nuclear deal because Iran needs an exemption from economic sanctions, according to a senior adviser to a US think tank.
“I think, in the end, an agreement is possible because the Iranians need money,” said Richard Goldberg of the Democracy Foundation.
The United States and Iran both seem interested in returning to the negotiating table, but have failed to agree on who should make the first move. The Biden administration offered to start talks with Tehran last week, but Iran has repeatedly stressed that the United States must lift sanctions to initiate the process. Washington has so far resisted these calls.
In addition, Iran’s new agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) “is certainly not useful” and does not fall within what was previously allowed, Goldberg said.
Iran’s parliament has passed a law blocking IAEA inspections, but both sides said on Sunday that “necessary verification and monitoring activities” could continue for up to three months.
Tan Feng Qin of the Middle East Institute at Singapore National University said Iran is aware that preventing inspections could have disadvantages.
The three-month recovery “provides space and time for the United States and Iran to try to find a solution to the sequencing problem,” he told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”
Goldberg also remains optimistic that an agreement can be reached.
“Everything you see, all the threats, the terrorism, the Gulf threats, the seizure of the tanks, the nuclear program, the taking of the hostages, all these are various extortion tactics to get money and get sanctions,” he told CNBC Squawk Box Asia “Monday. “That means a deal is possible.”
Iran’s foreign ministry has not responded to CNBC’s request for comment.
Sanctions affecting Iran’s economy
Heavy sanctions on Iran – imposed by the Trump administration after it withdrew from the 2015 agreement – have been devastating for Tehran’s economy.
According to the IMF, the last time Iran saw its GDP growth was in 2017, and the Islamic Republic had access to only $ 8.8 billion in foreign exchange reserves last year. It dropped from $ 12.7 billion in 2019 and $ 121.6 billion in 2018.
“They are suffering under the sanctions that President Trump has imposed, the so-called maximum pressure campaign,” Goldberg said.
“Clearly, they need access to money, they need to ease sanctions, and they want to lead a crisis to try to force Biden’s hand into some kind of discussion that includes improving sanctions,” he added.
However, questions remain about what the business will look like.
Iran has stated that its violations of the Global Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) are reversible and can be reversed. But Goldberg disagreed.
“There are a lot of steps that are not reversible,” he said. “The technical knowledge they gained by testing advanced centrifuges is something we can’t put back in the bottle.”
He also stressed that the agreement came with expiration dates on the fringes of Iran’s nuclear program.
“Since [the JCPOA is] for five years now, we are not in a time when the agreement is in Iran’s favor anyway, so this is a big question whether the Biden administration and their European and Asian allies would like to return to an agreement or simply resist and negotiate a new agreement, “he said.