The Mets had a Trevor Bauer budget. Now, back to the original plan.
Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson had earlier this season declared a desire to keep the salary below the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold. But in Bauer they saw the opportunity – a top talent at a time when few teams were willing to engage at the top of the market. They theorized that if Bauer were his 2020 version of Cy Young, he would change the Mets’ trajectory from competitor to something more immediate.
So the Mets made the biggest bid – three years, at $ 105 million. The average annual value of $ 35 million would have projected them beyond the tax threshold before addressing any other off-season issues or budgeting to add trading terms. Bauer won $ 3 million less from the Dodgers to win: his hometown, a more stable franchise, a safer winner, and a state-of-the-art pitching store.
Without Bauer, the Mets return to their previous concept. So, if you think about how the Mets could spend $ 105 million in total, $ 40 million this year (which would have been Bauer 2021 Mets’ salary) or exceeded the threshold, it’s unlikely. They currently have 22 players under major league contracts for $ 162 million. Complete the list, add the benefit formula and set aside money for calls and transactions in season, and the Mets probably have $ 25 million before they cross the threshold. A familiar part: The Mets, with Cohen’s money, should not treat the threshold as a de facto salary cap. If they have to go out of their way to improve the team reasonably, they should.
Some thoughts on where the team should go next:
1. Talk to Jacob deGrom. It is understood around the Mets that deGrom could not be so happy with his contract and that the Mets were offering more to someone in Bauer who had never done anything for them. DeGrom was signed under bizarre circumstances. He has long been represented by Brodie Van Wagenen, who became Mets GM after the 2018 season. make a deal. In the spring training of 2019, deGrom signed for five years in the amount of 137.5 million dollars. But almost 40% have been postponed for 15 years, dramatically lowering the current value.
The Mets owe nothing to DeGrom. If he was injured, the Mets would have to pay every dollar. And not the Cohen / Alderson administration signed it. But it was this administration that took care of Bauer.
DeGrom may resign after next season. Mets can handle it then. But they want to risk, say, bidding against the Dodgers, Yankees, and almost-have-tons-of-Giants in cash available, plus others. They now have the exclusivity to keep the second best pitcher in their history full and happy.
If deGrom does not give up, his contract has four years to the remaining 130 million dollars – however, reduced by postponements. How about the Mets offer to break this and grant a four-year, no-delay, $ 144 million pact with a fifth-year option for $ 36 million or an $ 8 million purchase dollars? The total guarantee of 152 million dollars is an average value of 38 million dollars, which pushes deGrom over 36 million dollars of Gerrit Cole for the highest average so far. Can deGrom try to run more? He could, but first this comes with good pitching at the ages of 33 and 34. The offer is to lose the postponements and become the highest paid player now.
2. Try a cost-neutral offer to Brewers for Lorenzo Cain. Mets are talking to free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. about center field. He is a winning player who brings elite defense. But the question in 2021 remains if there is no NL DH how could the Mets find enough bats for Bradley, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Dom Smith among the center, left and first?
The same would be true if you replaced Bradley with Cain. But here’s the thing: The Mets should give Jeurys Family, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach and a good perspective, but not elite (I think someone like Franklyn Kilome). Family, Betances and Brach total $ 17.375 million for tax pay in 2021, Cain $ 17 million. So doing so allows the Mets to have more budget for 2021 to add, say, even a Trevor Rosenthal to a bullpen with Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup, Seth Lugo and Trevor May.
Would small brewers do this to get rid of Cain’s $ 18 million salary in 2022 when he turns 36? It doesn’t hurt to ask. Cain’s right age (Bradley is left), his age and the fact that he gave up most of last season would make it easier, say, to start him in 110-120 games and spin the other bats if there is no DH, however to defend him late when he doesn’t start.
3. Take a starting rotation game. The Mets have improved this off-season – especially in the middle, especially with Francisco Lindor. But the Braves are even better in an East NL, and the Dodgers are definitely better in the NL. Mets should think about what, if it works, would reduce the distance.
I have no illusions about James Paxton. He doesn’t stay healthy. He risks. But unlike any other starter on the market, especially one that could do business for a year, the left has the best. Can you dream of a scenario where Paxton can take you to June-ish for the return of Noah Syndergaard and they are both healthy for September / October to join DeGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman? It is a rotation that could win any short series.
4. A negative vote for Justin Turner. With Bauer, the Dodgers project amounts to a salary of $ 237 million. Maybe they closed the plug now. That would make Turner’s most obvious landing place out of the game. It would create a chance for Alderson to reverse perhaps the worst move in his first term – Turner without a bid after the 2013 season. Turner followed with seven seasons of Hall-of-Fame borders with the Dodgers.
But he will play at 36 next year and will almost certainly take a multi-year deal to land (remember that Robinson Cano’s salary returns for 2022-23 to further burden the salary). The Mets shouldn’t risk letting him go at the wrong time and bringing him back at the wrong time. JD Davis is the third base on paper. I’m curious, though, if Luis Guillorme has anything Gio Urshela in him. There is no third base power possible with it. But he has great hands on both sides of the ball, which I would like to see an extended chance, especially since the third base is a position that should have candidates for available exchanges in the season, if the Mets need to fix this from mers.