BIRMINGHAM, Alabama (AP) – Coronavirus cases have dropped in U.S. nursing homes and other long-term care facilities in recent weeks, giving a glimmer of hope that health officials attribute to the start of vaccinations, a relaxation increased leave and better prevention, among other reasons.
More than 153,000 residents of nursing homes and assisted living centers have died from COVID-19, accounting for 36% of the death toll in the US, according to the COVID follow-up project. Many of the approximately 2 million people living in such facilities remain separated from their loved ones due to the risk of infection. The virus kills thousands more a week.
The overall trend for long-term care residents is improving, however, with fewer new cases and fewer outbreaks. Along with better figures for the country in general, there is reason for optimism, even if it is too early to declare victory.
“We certainly believe that there is hope and that there is light at the end of the tunnel,” said Marty Wright, who leads a West Virginia asylum trade group.
Nursing homes have been a priority since vaccinations began in mid-December, and the federal government says 1.5 million long-term care residents have already received at least one initial dose.
Researchers and industry leaders say they are seeing significant improvements after months in which some nursing homes lost dozens of residents to the disease and had to keep others in semi-isolation for protection. About 2,000 nursing homes are now virus-free, or about 13 percent nationwide, according to one industry group, and many are dealing with far fewer cases than before.
In West Virginia, where about 30 percent of the approximately 2,080 deaths in COVID-19 state have occurred in long-term care centers, fewer outbreaks occur and fewer residents require hospitalization, said Wright, executive director of the Association. West Virginia Health Care. Pennsylvania-based Genesis HealthCare, which operates more than 325 nursing homes, assisted living facilities or living communities in 24 states, has seen similar improvements, said spokeswoman Lori Mayer.
The American Health Care Association and the National Center for Assisted Living, an industry trade organization, said Thursday that data from about 800 nursing homes where initial doses of the vaccine were given in late December yielded promising results. Cases among residents fell by 48% in homes where immunizations took place, compared with a 21% decline in nearby unvaccinated facilities. Meanwhile, cases among employees decreased by 33% in vaccinated homes, compared to 18% in unvaccinated units.
After reaching a maximum of almost 73,600 new weekly cases in long-term care facilities nationwide in mid-December, the number fell by 31% by the end of January to about 50,000 new cases per week. , found an analysis Associated Press. However, the most recent weekly number is 18% higher than the seven-day period that ended on Thanksgiving Day, when the numbers began to rise.
The weekly number of new deaths remains stubbornly high, with a record of 7,042 recorded in the seven-day period that ended on January 14 and only a slight decrease since then. By comparison, for the seven days that ended on Thanksgiving, 3,181 deaths were recorded. More encouragingly, the COVID follow-up project found that only 251 facilities recently reported new outbreaks, compared to 1,410 in early January.
Dr David Gifford, chief medical officer of the national association, said the figures showed signs of hope as they indicated that vaccines could slow the spread of COVID-19, a finding that has not been shown in studies.
“If verified with additional data, this could accelerate the reopening of long-term care facilities for visitors, which is vital to the health and well-being of residents,” he said in a statement.
The ability to visit left Mark Badger and his 91-year-old father, Billy, who is in a nursing home in Anchorage, Alaska, in tears. It was the first face-to-face visit in a year. Mark Badger’s mother had died at home a year ago.
“This is a time when he really needs us,” said Mark Badger. “He was alone.”
Experts warn that only some of the improvements can be related to vaccines.
Studies in Israel show that it takes a patient about 12 days for the first two-dose Pfizer or Moderna vaccine to provide significant protection, said Roni Rosenfeld, a computational epidemiologist who heads the Department of Machine Learning at Carnegie Mellon University. Despite all residents and workers who received at least one dose The vaccine did not have enough working time for most people, he said this week.
“The vaccine probably contributed, but very, very little,” Rosenfeld said.
Health officials say other factors are likely to play a larger role, including a decline in post-holiday growth, an increasing number of people who are immune because they have had the disease, behavioral changes and protective equipment. more abundant. And he warns that there are still threats to the ambush, including more contagious strains of the virus and the reluctance of many healthcare workers to get vaccinated.
At the Arbor Springs Health and Rehabilitation Center in Opelika, Alabama, where 19 patients died of COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic, none of the approximately 115 patients are now infected, said Mark Traylor, who runs the unit’s parent company. Traylor-Porter Healthcare.
“We take care of each other here. We take care of each other, “said Susan McEachern on Wednesday, while she and a friend – both wearing masks – were sitting in a common room that was recently reopened because many residents had been vaccinated.
Traylor said a better understanding of how to prevent the spread of the virus and how to treat COVID-19 was the difference between “looking into the abyss” in those first weeks of the crisis and visitors now being allowed to back on a limited basis.
“We will be in great shape once we vaccinate everyone,” Traylor said.
PruittHealth, which operates about 100 nursing homes in Carolinas, Georgia and Florida, has 29 locations that lack COVID-19 and fewer patients have tested positive in recent weeks, said CEO Neil Pruitt.
Although more than 70% of eligible PruittHealth nursing home residents have been immunized, only 27% of its employees have agreed to be vaccinated, Pruitt said. Without a significant improvement in that number of employees, he is worried that cases could rise again once people start traveling on spring break.
“Right now, I’m not confident,” he said.
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Associated Press Medical Writer Carla K. Johnson of Washington State; Adrain Sainz in Memphis, Tennessee; Mark Thiessen in Anchorage, Alaska; data journalist Nicky Forster; and photographer Julie Bennett of Opelika contributed to this report.