An estimated 631,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by June 1, according to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The team behind the influential forecast model said much depends on the launch of the vaccine and the spread of variants. A scenario in the worst case could see the death toll reaching 703,000.
“The balance between the spread of the new variant and the associated increased transmission and the expansion of vaccination in the most likely scenario suggests continuous decreases in daily deaths until June 1,” he said.
On Thursday night, the United States reported more than 455,000 Covid-19 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The IHME cited a survey showing an increase in the number of Americans willing to be vaccinated, from 54% to 66%.
“Daily deaths have peaked and are declining. By June 1, 2021, we project that 123,600 lives will be saved by the projected launch of the vaccine, ”said IHME.
How to save more lives: If 95% of Americans wore masks, 44,000 more lives would be saved, IHME said. Currently, the use of the mask is about 77%.
And people need to stay in position even if they have been vaccinated, IHME said. If vaccinated people start moving and traveling normally, 17 states could again see an increase in daily deaths by April and May.
The best strategies to manage this period of the pandemic are the rapid expansion of vaccination, the continuous and extensive wearing of a mask and concerted efforts to avoid recovery mobility in vaccines. Some states are rapidly raising mandates, which poses a real risk of increased transmission, as new options spread and vaccination rates remain relatively low, ”IHME warned.