It is possible that President Biden raised his hopes prematurely when he said that he expected that in the spring, any American who wants a COVID-19 vaccination could receive one.
However, he did not go so far as to identify which month, leaving open the possibility that “spring” would mean the peak of summer, in mid-June. However, the White House quickly lowered that expectation.
“Not everyone will be – not eligible this spring, as you all know, even if the CDC continues to provide updated guidance,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday. “But [Mr. Biden] it would certainly refer to medical and medical experts and, of course, to Dr. Fauci’s guidance on when we might be in the rhythm of reaching the herd’s immunity. ”
The White House has clarified that 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days of Mr Biden’s presidency are still the official target, as originally planned, after Mr Biden expressed hope that 150 million COVID outbreaks could have place in its first 100 days. And the 100 million goal in 100 days is one of the nation’s best infectious disease experts, Dr. Anthony Fauci seems to agree that it is realistic. “Once you get through and get some impetus, I think we can achieve 1 million a day or more,” he told the Associated Press earlier this month.
At a rate of 1 million photos per day, it would take the rest of 2021 to vaccinate about 70% of American adults. This could be in the field of herd immunity, at a time when the rate of disease transmission is slowing down, although scientists are not yet sure what percentage of the population needs to be inoculated to reach herd immunity against COVID-19.
Also, the White House has not yet said when young Americans without pre-existing health conditions, who are not essential workers, can expect to be shot.
The administration has taken steps to increase vaccine production, announcing late Tuesday that intends to purchase another 200 million Pfizer and Moderna vaccine doses, which he hopes will be available in the summer, although the goal of 100 million doses in 100 days does not depend on the approval of any new vaccine.
Experts in public health and supply chains say a number of factors will be crucial in accelerating the distribution of the vaccine to the general population – in essence, adults under 65 who do not have underlying health conditions and are not essential workers.
“Everyone needs to recognize that reducing up to 400 million doses of a vaccine we didn’t have a year ago will take some time,” said Dr. Julie Swann, head of the industrial and systems engineering department. from North Carolina State University. “I don’t expect the general public to have access to the end of spring, unless we have more fortuitous things going on between now and then.”
The main components involved in meeting the vaccination goal are supply, distribution and administration, says Prashant Yadav, a senior colleague at the Center for Global Development and an associate professor of technology and operations management at INSEAD. And they are “just as important and not given,” he said.
Yadav believes vaccine production should work almost “perfectly” to keep up with demand, but he still believes vaccinations could be available to the general public in May or early June. But March or April, he said, is “extremely unfeasible.”
Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, a professor at CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Public Policy and executive director of Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operational Research, told CBS News that he was concerned about the “multiple blockages” in the vaccine launch. Distribution and administration were Slower than expected.
Identify where the supply chain bottlenecks are and will reveal whether a spring timeline is “accessible or aspirational,” he said.
“It’s not just the large number of vaccines that matters,” Lee said. “It matters who actually receives them,” Lee said.
Residents could be vaccinated at a faster rate if states ignore priority guidelines, but that would be counterproductive to the goal of protecting the most vulnerable, Lee said. There were anecdotes about cutting the line rich Americansand in other cases, people who are not on the highest priority lists receive fire because of the pressure not to miss the highly perishable doses.
“Because the reconstituted Pfizer vaccine must be used within a few hours or disposed of, more doses have been given to non-front-line healthcare workers so that the valuable vaccine is not discarded,” said a spokesman for Redlands Community Hospital. , Nikyah Thomas-Pfeiffer, in a statement. .
And maintaining the pace of millions of photos a day can become more difficult, Lee and others said, noting that vaccinations began with “loose fruit” in places like hospitals and long-term care centers. When vaccine eligibility opens up more, some populations may be more difficult to access, depending on where they live and their socio-economic circumstances. It will take more effort to reach US residents who do not speak English or have regular access to health care, Lee noted.
State governments are beginning to feel pressure to vaccinate less vulnerable populations, Lee said, especially from large employers who want to vaccinate their employees so they can return to work safely.
The Biden administration needs to conduct its own analysis of bottlenecks in vaccine distribution, Lee said. It is starting to address this by announcing new vaccine allocation programs this week that will provide states with more advanced information about their shipments of vaccines, allowing them to better plan their distribution.
The federal government can also vaccinate more people more quickly by establishing or supporting vaccination sites, said Yadav, who the Biden administration says is developing.
Swann said the administration of vaccines would be more effective if each state had a website where people could sign up to get the photos, rather than go through local health departments. But there are currently only a handful of states with a centralized vaccination registration system or a waiting list, according to a recent Wall Street Journal review.
New Jersey has a nationwide registration system. In California and New Jersey, residents can register in advance to be notified when their turn comes, but this does not necessarily put them in a line to receive the vaccine. South Dakota does not have a statewide waiting list, but directs residents to local health care providers, where they can find a waiting list.
“Finally, I think we will have enough vaccine for all Americans who want one and for additional boosters if needed,” Swann said. “New processes take time, but supply will increase.”
Alexander Tin contributed to this report.